{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2fd7dd7b-167e-4333-ac48-0807eb678f20", "symbol": "IUIT", "name": "iShares S&P 500 Information Technology Sector UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.881, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.915, "architecture_energy": 50.065, "architecture_maturity": 18.506, "architecture_confidence": 65.463, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.56, "rotation_up": 51.91, "upward_expansion": 76.24, "deceleration": 67.52, "rotation_down": 21.06, "downward_expansion": 7.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.496999, 49.848727, 49.449285, 47.767763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 50.139999, "trend_reference": 45.436333, "distance_from_trend": 0.103522, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.476602, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.45432, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.138122, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.244323, "excess_performance": 0.201233, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103522, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062027, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.45432, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084721, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051381, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101648, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.244323, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.813087, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 183043, "relative_activity": 1.25184, "balance": 0.813087, "dry_up": 1.150709, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039213, "annualized_volatility": 0.260366, "from_high_reference": -0.04313, "from_low_reference": 0.371257 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.436333, "fair_value_reference": 34.476602, "structural_low": 36.564999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.022931, "positive_rate": 0.675676, "directional_follow_through": 0.675676, "median_excess_return": 0.013567, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.116095, "worst_return": -0.12421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.052002, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.040142, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.237482, "worst_return": -0.180498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.119276, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.058865, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.293665, "worst_return": -0.206072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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171123.0, "trend": 44.294666, "fair_value": 33.738109, "relative_strength": 3.14856, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.9345, "energy": 36.862648, "activity_lines": [ 48.71, 49.153909, 48.103476, 46.296075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.75, "volume": 256171, "typical_volume": 165725.0, "trend": 44.473166, "fair_value": 33.90157, "relative_strength": 1.490276, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.469002, "energy": 27.953986, "activity_lines": [ 48.384, 48.833545, 48.268405, 46.519 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.75, "volume": 140614, "typical_volume": 160864.85, "trend": 44.8055, "fair_value": 34.095545, "relative_strength": 8.307148, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.58259, "energy": 45.620362, "activity_lines": [ 49.416, 49.272182, 48.773071, 46.988473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 51.889999, "volume": 93195, "typical_volume": 151530.55, "trend": 45.1455, "fair_value": 34.293013, "relative_strength": 9.520001, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.465584, "energy": 55.649863, "activity_lines": [ 50.316666, 49.734818, 49.229, 47.445537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 50.139999, "volume": 183043, "typical_volume": 146219.2, "trend": 45.436333, "fair_value": 34.476602, "relative_strength": 5.138122, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.914612, "energy": 50.064548, "activity_lines": [ 50.496999, 49.848727, 49.449285, 47.767763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }