{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2fe250bb-532b-4a70-bcad-1b680f6f3824", "symbol": "ZUMZ", "name": "Zumiez Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.987, "architecture_energy": 22.627, "architecture_maturity": 66.217, "architecture_confidence": 76.118, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.3, "rotation_up": 26.76, "upward_expansion": 15.36, "deceleration": 46.08, "rotation_down": 26.02, "downward_expansion": 60.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.436, 18.862364, 20.051095, 20.928065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.11, "trend_reference": 22.179, "distance_from_trend": -0.093286, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.286827, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.49561, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.192694, "excess_performance": -0.380147, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093286, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102513, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272888, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235512, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.192694, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.00404, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1463990, "relative_activity": 1.610373, "balance": 2.00404, "dry_up": 1.293935, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115385, "annualized_volatility": 0.619333, "from_high_reference": -0.365615, "from_low_reference": 0.42523 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.179, "fair_value_reference": 19.286827, "structural_low": 15.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.021576, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.004688, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.261765, "worst_return": -0.201168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.056338, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.072403, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.548062, "worst_return": -0.327925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.088841, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.208777, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.111628, "worst_return": -0.435226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.127169, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.093138, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.550651, "worst_return": -0.392054, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088451, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.344853, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.171196, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00816, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.139556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.254237, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097892, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109748, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", 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"close": 18.94, "volume": 1059064, "typical_volume": 914379.45, "trend": 22.578667, "fair_value": 19.274583, "relative_strength": -21.577907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.655133, "energy": 42.804283, "activity_lines": [ 18.476, 18.595091, 20.298619, 21.261613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.67, "volume": 1258864, "typical_volume": 891307.2, "trend": 22.371333, "fair_value": 19.280673, "relative_strength": -19.199651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.491023, "energy": 30.84828, "activity_lines": [ 18.93, 18.649818, 20.149714, 21.073957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.11, "volume": 1463990, "typical_volume": 909100.05, "trend": 22.179, "fair_value": 19.286827, "relative_strength": -21.49561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.986539, "energy": 22.626791, "activity_lines": [ 19.436, 18.862364, 20.051095, 20.928065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }