{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2fe3e78c-9948-4701-975f-f4167322dcc9", "symbol": "00935", "name": "NEXT FUNDS - Nomura Taiwan Innovative Technology 50 ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.432, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.804, "architecture_energy": 26.292, "architecture_maturity": 74.379, "architecture_confidence": 89.371, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.79, "rotation_up": 21.65, "upward_expansion": 55.87, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 34.85, "downward_expansion": 19.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.453335, 56.429092, 55.990429, 52.410154 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 55.0, "trend_reference": 47.120002, "distance_from_trend": 0.167233, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.685045, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.141324, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.792486, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.609253, "excess_performance": 0.229942, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.167233, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.265716, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.141324, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.265037, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.117925, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168507, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.609253, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.607196, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67031177, "relative_activity": 1.176186, "balance": 0.607196, "dry_up": 1.522162, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087776, "annualized_volatility": 0.407254, "from_high_reference": -0.132492, "from_low_reference": 1.543312 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.120002, "fair_value_reference": 25.685045, "structural_low": 32.986118, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067416, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055209, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065246, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.326571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", 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14.752, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.982197, "energy": 35.053925, "activity_lines": [ 56.640001, 58.141819, 55.609654, 51.385278 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.650002, "volume": 128551345, "typical_volume": 55653008.55, "trend": 46.280642, "fair_value": 25.480045, "relative_strength": 10.347133, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.202484, "energy": 26.781522, "activity_lines": [ 54.950002, 57.038183, 55.725524, 51.847615 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.0, "volume": 67031177, "typical_volume": 56990288.65, "trend": 47.120002, "fair_value": 25.685045, "relative_strength": 11.792486, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.803562, "energy": 26.291837, "activity_lines": [ 54.453335, 56.429092, 55.990429, 52.410154 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }