{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2fe563b3-04d5-4d50-a4c9-d8810716f529", "symbol": "2527", "name": "NZAM ETF J-REIT Core Index", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.66, "architecture_energy": 21.614, "architecture_maturity": 80.603, "architecture_confidence": 65.174, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.47, "rotation_up": 32.44, "upward_expansion": 20.04, "deceleration": 43.95, "rotation_down": 25.04, "downward_expansion": 54.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 1127.689364, 1120.669771, 1123.078995, 1138.063097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1106.0, "trend_reference": 1160.942505, "distance_from_trend": -0.047326, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1049.825801, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053508, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.964334, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.088962, "excess_performance": -0.29822, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047326, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02587, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053508, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049761, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219643, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019453, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088962, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.6466, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 320847, "relative_activity": 2.181216, "balance": 3.6466, "dry_up": 2.308989, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031741, "annualized_volatility": 0.125288, "from_high_reference": -0.122222, "from_low_reference": 0.040452 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1160.942505, "fair_value_reference": 1049.825801, "structural_low": 1063.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.008331, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.015876, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.07122, "worst_return": -0.084763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.026466, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.028655, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.069895, "worst_return": -0.090974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.029743, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.072257, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.106512, "worst_return": -0.027438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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112195.55, "trend": 1167.341899, "fair_value": 1048.347754, "relative_strength": -20.017585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.571732, "energy": 23.23006, "activity_lines": [ 1124.078743, 1114.461594, 1124.838758, 1142.74235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1154.0, "volume": 510490, "typical_volume": 131198.05, "trend": 1165.186519, "fair_value": 1049.285205, "relative_strength": -17.721166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.243281, "energy": 19.199297, "activity_lines": [ 1135.401424, 1122.283864, 1126.139829, 1141.881583 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1106.0, "volume": 320847, "typical_volume": 147095.45, "trend": 1160.942505, "fair_value": 1049.825801, "relative_strength": -21.964334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.65976, "energy": 21.613692, "activity_lines": [ 1127.689364, 1120.669771, 1123.078995, 1138.063097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }