{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2fe82af4-f72c-44e3-965a-6e6941b8146f", "symbol": "3041", "name": "ALi Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.663, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.512, "architecture_energy": 36.549, "architecture_maturity": 10.181, "architecture_confidence": 70.152, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.43, "rotation_up": 17.37, "upward_expansion": 13.44, "deceleration": 48.33, "rotation_down": 60.34, "downward_expansion": 52.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.786666, 24.063636, 24.62119, 24.477957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.299999, "trend_reference": 24.585, "distance_from_trend": -0.052268, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.141987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.275092, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.417663, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.080868, "excess_performance": -0.52224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052268, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008603, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.275092, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016846, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.364177, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040269, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.080868, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.858319, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5100858, "relative_activity": 0.527351, "balance": 0.858319, "dry_up": 0.551507, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146913, "annualized_volatility": 0.479512, "from_high_reference": -0.286371, "from_low_reference": 0.170854 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.585, "fair_value_reference": 32.141987, "structural_low": 19.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.077793, "positive_rate": 0.235294, "directional_follow_through": 0.235294, "median_excess_return": -0.071453, "regime_survival": 0.352941, "best_return": 0.12439, "worst_return": -0.174067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.063927, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.158901, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.029268, "worst_return": -0.2843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.135563, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.282173, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.216582, "worst_return": -0.40655, "sufficient": true }, 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015845, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005367, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055328, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025591, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.118095, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036832, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054945, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.10397, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081207, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 29.5, "volume": 2264728, "typical_volume": 2713761.2, "trend": 33.491666, "fair_value": 43.856836, "relative_strength": -21.098171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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27.346666, 26.624545, 25.406666, 25.110537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.25, "volume": 9286276, "typical_volume": 9599120.05, "trend": 24.895, "fair_value": 32.35267, "relative_strength": -35.458565, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.795335, "energy": 15.651774, "activity_lines": [ 26.08, 26.121818, 25.276428, 25.000215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.700001, "volume": 5937247, "typical_volume": 9608274.0, "trend": 24.86, "fair_value": 32.307478, "relative_strength": -34.872874, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.155754, "energy": 11.607675, "activity_lines": [ 25.05, 25.72, 25.196905, 24.923118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.549999, "volume": 7284598, "typical_volume": 9831874.1, "trend": 24.756667, "fair_value": 32.245299, "relative_strength": -39.24695, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.725808, "energy": 24.010131, "activity_lines": [ 23.6, 24.917273, 24.911428, 24.70957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.5, "volume": 3015348, "typical_volume": 9628938.35, "trend": 24.633333, "fair_value": 32.19188, "relative_strength": -37.290235, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.17298, "energy": 30.187644, "activity_lines": [ 22.85, 24.389091, 24.725952, 24.563978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 23.299999, "volume": 5100858, "typical_volume": 9672608.45, "trend": 24.585, "fair_value": 32.141987, "relative_strength": -36.417663, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.511634, "energy": 36.548787, "activity_lines": [ 22.786666, 24.063636, 24.62119, 24.477957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }