{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2fea21fc-e6da-4bc6-94d8-f290c67865a3", "symbol": "600379", "name": "Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electric Device Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.383, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.899, "architecture_energy": 23.41, "architecture_maturity": 20.741, "architecture_confidence": 49.289, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.01, "rotation_up": 24.48, "upward_expansion": 23.68, "deceleration": 48.75, "rotation_down": 53.03, "downward_expansion": 41.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.196, 12.742365, 13.28482, 13.265756 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 13.63, "trend_reference": 13.178514, "distance_from_trend": 0.034259, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.523144, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.29524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.118567, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.074074, "excess_performance": 0.117278, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034259, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019863, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.29524, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.337428, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.071186, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169483, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074074, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.720273, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 109609417, "relative_activity": 1.014319, "balance": 0.720273, "dry_up": 0.963334, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.195894, "annualized_volatility": 0.902749, "from_high_reference": -0.343162, "from_low_reference": 0.479913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.178514, "fair_value_reference": 10.523144, "structural_low": 9.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.042972, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": 0.025226, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.244108, "worst_return": -0.150206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.01582, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.006835, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.398926, "worst_return": -0.108718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.089223, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.020425, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.304944, "worst_return": -0.149744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 24.7245, "activity_lines": [ 14.401333, 14.013687, 13.925114, 13.62533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.2, "volume": 103487658, "typical_volume": 99155804.3, "trend": 13.158514, "fair_value": 10.486426, "relative_strength": -8.922598, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.005192, "energy": 8.642373, "activity_lines": [ 13.542, 13.440714, 13.695945, 13.497576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.15, "volume": 102035513, "typical_volume": 102081179.6, "trend": 13.141848, "fair_value": 10.494417, "relative_strength": -10.154388, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.615949, "energy": 11.562991, "activity_lines": [ 12.711333, 12.95884, 13.472205, 13.367994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.04, "volume": 101266950, "typical_volume": 104382132.7, "trend": 13.112848, "fair_value": 10.500259, "relative_strength": -10.970609, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.399336, "energy": 34.375065, "activity_lines": [ 11.906, 12.592711, 13.250417, 13.232391 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.63, "volume": 109609417, "typical_volume": 108062125.2, "trend": 13.178514, "fair_value": 10.523144, "relative_strength": 7.118567, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.898934, "energy": 23.40969, "activity_lines": [ 12.196, 12.742365, 13.28482, 13.265756 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }