{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2fef16f5-b39b-404a-b236-45e29a70571f", "symbol": "EXSA", "name": "iShares STOXX Europe 600 UCITS ETF (DE) EUR (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.545, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.087, "architecture_energy": 77.09, "architecture_maturity": 26.844, "architecture_confidence": 77.472, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 69.4, "upward_expansion": 91.37, "deceleration": 46.56, "rotation_down": 19.97, "downward_expansion": 15.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.891333, 64.440594, 63.314698, 62.458174 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 65.959999, "trend_reference": 61.611856, "distance_from_trend": 0.070573, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.989516, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.268717, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.549361, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.08216, "excess_performance": -0.088732, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070573, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036617, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.268717, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062918, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045494, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017254, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08216, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.542896, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105977, "relative_activity": 0.717113, "balance": 1.542896, "dry_up": 1.163523, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018765, "annualized_volatility": 0.142418, "from_high_reference": -0.003926, "from_low_reference": 0.232933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.611856, "fair_value_reference": 51.989516, "structural_low": 55.48, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.0074, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.005446, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.074576, "worst_return": -0.057617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.024855, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.029601, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.078798, "worst_return": -0.041402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.070857, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.03157, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.149873, "worst_return": -0.124641, "sufficient": true }, { 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] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.959999, "volume": 105977, "typical_volume": 147782.85, "trend": 61.611856, "fair_value": 51.989516, "relative_strength": -4.549361, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.08743, "energy": 77.089816, "activity_lines": [ 64.891333, 64.440594, 63.314698, 62.458174 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }