{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ff433b1-90f9-4497-b1c8-0c3ae9fe6e81", "symbol": "EK7", "name": "Agricultural Bank of China Limited", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.91, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.64, "architecture_energy": 70.551, "architecture_maturity": 18.402, "architecture_confidence": 95.746, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.17, "rotation_up": 59.94, "upward_expansion": 86.24, "deceleration": 54.28, "rotation_down": 20.7, "downward_expansion": 15.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.6568, 0.641905, 0.627125, 0.593448 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.6476, "trend_reference": 0.54943, "distance_from_trend": 0.178676, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.252149, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.568318, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.609544, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.392104, "excess_performance": 0.217858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.178676, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136854, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.568318, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.661103, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.106095, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269561, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.392104, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045327, "annualized_volatility": 0.385805, "from_high_reference": -0.094266, "from_low_reference": 0.889473 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.54943, "fair_value_reference": 0.252149, "structural_low": 0.432631, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 58, "median_return": 0.017139, "positive_rate": 0.637931, "directional_follow_through": 0.637931, "median_excess_return": 0.012883, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 2.107511, "worst_return": -0.07673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.126735, "positive_rate": 0.842105, "directional_follow_through": 0.842105, "median_excess_return": 0.157933, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 2.06762, "worst_return": -0.04693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.406996, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.231992, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 2.274671, "worst_return": 0.026498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 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47.605417, "energy": 48.391696, "activity_lines": [ 0.612587, 0.62501, 0.586845, 0.555098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.625, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 794.9, "trend": 0.525543, "fair_value": 0.236139, "relative_strength": 11.917473, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.712923, "energy": 38.102738, "activity_lines": [ 0.6132, 0.625233, 0.594327, 0.561849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.6406, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 794.9, "trend": 0.531364, "fair_value": 0.240041, "relative_strength": 16.325251, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.008076, "energy": 41.795826, "activity_lines": [ 0.61992, 0.626316, 0.602445, 0.569272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6506, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 794.9, "trend": 0.537285, "fair_value": 0.243999, "relative_strength": 15.843412, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.799289, "energy": 53.818373, "activity_lines": [ 0.63124, 0.629335, 0.610588, 0.576965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.689, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 794.9, "trend": 0.543815, "fair_value": 0.248206, "relative_strength": 21.790367, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.243477, "energy": 65.178625, "activity_lines": [ 0.65392, 0.639705, 0.621407, 0.586753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6476, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 794.9, "trend": 0.54943, "fair_value": 0.252149, "relative_strength": 10.609544, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.640264, "energy": 70.550564, "activity_lines": [ 0.6568, 0.641905, 0.627125, 0.593448 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }