{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ff519ff-9bfb-427e-9c1e-cd23e8cef962", "symbol": "XFFE", "name": "Xtrackers II USD Overnight Rate Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.531, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.918, "architecture_energy": 95.651, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.013, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 76.57, "upward_expansion": 100.0, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 20.43, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 214.428335, 214.192274, 213.708692, 213.223872 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 214.625, "trend_reference": 212.517501, "distance_from_trend": 0.009917, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 201.963426, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.062692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.2417, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018024, "excess_performance": -0.033211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009917, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006937, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.062692, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00276, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062417, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019589, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018024, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15090, "relative_activity": 0.333396, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.573059, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001103, "annualized_volatility": 0.001444, "from_high_reference": -0.005445, "from_low_reference": 0.038386 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 212.517501, "fair_value_reference": 201.963426, "structural_low": 210.800003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 55, "median_return": 0.003386, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.008485, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.004375, "worst_return": 0.000613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.010921, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016103, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.013623, "worst_return": 0.003513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022182, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.030416, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.02693, "worst_return": 0.010651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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212.495431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 214.074997, "volume": 35482, "typical_volume": 51692.95, "trend": 211.929167, "fair_value": 201.265477, "relative_strength": -3.89586, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.521462, "energy": 81.246392, "activity_lines": [ 213.871668, 213.620456, 213.132859, 212.643334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 214.175003, "volume": 40325, "typical_volume": 53058.0, "trend": 212.076667, "fair_value": 201.440445, "relative_strength": -4.549764, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.840939, "energy": 76.937407, "activity_lines": [ 214.008335, 213.76182, 213.276192, 212.788227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 214.324997, "volume": 28919, "typical_volume": 49923.65, "trend": 212.224167, "fair_value": 201.615092, "relative_strength": -5.461469, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.476814, "energy": 78.945617, "activity_lines": [ 214.148334, 213.904547, 213.419882, 212.933281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 214.475006, "volume": 19416, "typical_volume": 45596.25, "trend": 212.371667, "fair_value": 201.789483, "relative_strength": -6.283589, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.249122, "energy": 79.845366, "activity_lines": [ 214.288335, 214.047729, 213.564049, 213.078496 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 214.625, "volume": 15090, "typical_volume": 45261.5, "trend": 212.517501, "fair_value": 201.963426, "relative_strength": -6.2417, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.918358, "energy": 95.651228, "activity_lines": [ 214.428335, 214.192274, 213.708692, 213.223872 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }