{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2ff63a1f-2234-4a05-8db3-eaacc33b23e5", "symbol": "300207", "name": "Sunwoda Electronic Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.652, "architecture_energy": 62.6, "architecture_maturity": 59.314, "architecture_confidence": 95.953, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 27.4, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 56.32, "rotation_down": 54.76, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.988666, 18.208909, 20.405173, 21.940919 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.48, "trend_reference": 23.482636, "distance_from_trend": -0.213036, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.351646, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.091965, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.300463, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.211268, "excess_performance": -0.218667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213036, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14351, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.091965, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.422176, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.313005, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.211268, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.526642, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 291729161, "relative_activity": 0.986164, "balance": 0.526642, "dry_up": 0.987086, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095656, "annualized_volatility": 0.526548, "from_high_reference": -0.512401, "from_low_reference": 0.154279 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.482636, "fair_value_reference": 20.351646, "structural_low": 16.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.013446, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.017748, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.271883, "worst_return": -0.123776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.049677, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.015938, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.466205, "worst_return": -0.226957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.054992, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.037613, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.677433, "worst_return": -0.301966, "sufficient": true }, { 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18.517999, 19.97791, 22.613632, 23.63119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.58, "volume": 206242146, "typical_volume": 302867893.4, "trend": 24.48097, "fair_value": 20.306365, "relative_strength": -36.852756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.33372, "energy": 92.455816, "activity_lines": [ 17.692666, 19.086061, 21.886398, 23.093451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.92, "volume": 262736919, "typical_volume": 302849932.1, "trend": 24.09497, "fair_value": 20.313532, "relative_strength": -35.414451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.706376, "energy": 89.626183, "activity_lines": [ 17.223333, 18.438575, 21.237117, 22.605646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.049999, "volume": 407299217, "typical_volume": 301556461.8, "trend": 23.738303, "fair_value": 20.332401, "relative_strength": -25.85447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.322637, "energy": 81.966324, "activity_lines": [ 17.722666, 18.327022, 20.829168, 22.280164 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.48, "volume": 291729161, "typical_volume": 295822115.0, "trend": 23.482636, "fair_value": 20.351646, "relative_strength": -31.300463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.651505, "energy": 62.600177, "activity_lines": [ 17.988666, 18.208909, 20.405173, 21.940919 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }