{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30007325-4be3-45b4-bf56-ec8b0f0e7a98", "symbol": "AIQ", "name": "Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.134, "architecture_energy": 23.793, "architecture_maturity": 70.91, "architecture_confidence": 88.413, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.79, "rotation_up": 24.45, "upward_expansion": 54.17, "deceleration": 90.95, "rotation_down": 34.62, "downward_expansion": 20.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.472667, 61.302827, 61.25019, 58.923419 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 63.35, "trend_reference": 56.1212, "distance_from_trend": 0.128807, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.21671, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.536998, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.674142, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.264976, "excess_performance": 0.077522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.128807, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072732, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.536998, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089644, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046741, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029298, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.264976, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.02365, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6896850, "relative_activity": 0.625854, "balance": 1.02365, "dry_up": 0.883496, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072345, "annualized_volatility": 0.323954, "from_high_reference": -0.098343, "from_low_reference": 0.459278 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.1212, "fair_value_reference": 41.21671, "structural_low": 44.46, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.050007, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.002575, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.113014, "worst_return": -0.024861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.066485, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001098, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.238408, "worst_return": -0.140902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.185503, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.010664, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.225315, "worst_return": 0.12544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"up", "direction": 47.466629, "energy": 40.385319, "activity_lines": [ 63.443152, 63.682432, 60.436685, 57.806342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.7, "volume": 11226461, "typical_volume": 11559024.95, "trend": 55.298358, "fair_value": 40.607103, "relative_strength": 1.35885, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.838815, "energy": 24.253376, "activity_lines": [ 61.727243, 62.805406, 60.605799, 58.043038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.98, "volume": 6546428, "typical_volume": 10849741.35, "trend": 55.513534, "fair_value": 40.790375, "relative_strength": 1.610198, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.105353, "energy": 22.835106, "activity_lines": [ 60.124637, 61.8631, 60.666152, 58.216047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.89, "volume": 14274404, "typical_volume": 10923886.55, "trend": 55.7622, "fair_value": 40.986758, "relative_strength": 2.478019, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.953598, "energy": 21.076886, "activity_lines": [ 59.413333, 61.141876, 60.770885, 58.433884 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.35, "volume": 6896850, "typical_volume": 11019897.05, "trend": 56.1212, "fair_value": 41.21671, "relative_strength": 4.674142, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.134474, "energy": 23.792507, "activity_lines": [ 60.472667, 61.302827, 61.25019, 58.923419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }