{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3001f904-568c-4658-a3b4-f69a90dff750", "symbol": "BNE", "name": "Kencana Agri Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.27, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.529, "architecture_energy": 11.054, "architecture_maturity": 35.428, "architecture_confidence": 76.664, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.59, "rotation_up": 18.96, "upward_expansion": 42.52, "deceleration": 80.72, "rotation_down": 35.17, "downward_expansion": 38.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.438667, 0.442364, 0.463326, 0.452844 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.435, "trend_reference": 0.414269, "distance_from_trend": 0.050041, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.168205, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.586135, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.951749, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.752831, "excess_performance": 0.597996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050041, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162754, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.586135, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.413949, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059517, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.968368, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.752831, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.252374, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5200, "relative_activity": 0.017044, "balance": 0.252374, "dry_up": 0.224356, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076923, "annualized_volatility": 0.620442, "from_high_reference": -0.25, "from_low_reference": 4.022167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.414269, "fair_value_reference": 0.168205, "structural_low": 0.238438, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.005681, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024177, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 2.089891, "worst_return": -0.214286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.166664, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.084256, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 3.117658, "worst_return": -0.227274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.357138, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.356422, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.888902, "worst_return": 0.099999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.69762, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.574235, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.928572, "worst_return": 0.466667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066666, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042862, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-20", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.435, "volume": 31600, "typical_volume": 510150.0, "trend": 0.390949, "fair_value": 0.15911, "relative_strength": 17.808272, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.705813, "energy": 17.637947, "activity_lines": [ 0.442333, 0.457, 0.474301, 0.441593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.475, "volume": 105500, "typical_volume": 470455.0, "trend": 0.397699, "fair_value": 0.161556, "relative_strength": 25.330953, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.599642, "energy": 16.696921, "activity_lines": [ 0.451667, 0.456636, 0.475623, 0.447016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.44, "volume": 18000, "typical_volume": 389075.0, "trend": 0.403283, "fair_value": 0.163815, "relative_strength": 12.596636, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.803183, "energy": 10.304827, "activity_lines": [ 0.447667, 0.451364, 0.472531, 0.449745 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.425, "volume": 145100, "typical_volume": 338095.0, "trend": 0.408691, "fair_value": 0.165978, "relative_strength": 6.389796, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.453922, "energy": 13.673312, "activity_lines": [ 0.441333, 0.445182, 0.467491, 0.451146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.435, "volume": 5200, "typical_volume": 305095.0, "trend": 0.414269, "fair_value": 0.168205, "relative_strength": 5.951749, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.528694, "energy": 11.054372, "activity_lines": [ 0.438667, 0.442364, 0.463326, 0.452844 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }