{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3010be3a-eedf-4be8-b17d-373bde070161", "symbol": "BPM", "name": "BPM Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.344, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.726, "architecture_energy": 34.238, "architecture_maturity": 51.979, "architecture_confidence": 52.701, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.18, "rotation_up": 25.33, "upward_expansion": 16.58, "deceleration": 65.39, "rotation_down": 37.49, "downward_expansion": 64.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.168333, 0.166909, 0.180429, 0.195215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.18, "trend_reference": 0.21325, "distance_from_trend": -0.15592, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.102801, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.750951, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.522365, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.076923, "excess_performance": -0.140629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15592, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019522, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.750951, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.412052, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035224, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.492412, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.314516, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 621682, "relative_activity": 0.727938, "balance": 1.314516, "dry_up": 0.493696, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141026, "annualized_volatility": 0.892437, "from_high_reference": -0.532468, "from_low_reference": 3.736842 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.21325, "fair_value_reference": 0.102801, "structural_low": 0.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.026401, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.282051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.081812, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.101197, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 2.296296, "worst_return": -0.425532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.149388, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.176378, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.893617, "worst_return": -0.274194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"volume": 25000, "typical_volume": 1806350.95, "trend": 0.212917, "fair_value": 0.100244, "relative_strength": -0.902686, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.985017, "energy": 76.628559, "activity_lines": [ 0.163667, 0.178, 0.198655, 0.210081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.17, "volume": 681146, "typical_volume": 1688604.25, "trend": 0.21375, "fair_value": 0.100776, "relative_strength": 1.105376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.635421, "energy": 75.737982, "activity_lines": [ 0.163667, 0.174545, 0.193929, 0.207312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.175, "volume": 244293, "typical_volume": 1469223.35, "trend": 0.214917, "fair_value": 0.101269, "relative_strength": 2.721628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.6469, "energy": 65.9731, "activity_lines": [ 0.166667, 0.172818, 0.190369, 0.204812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.155, "volume": 245619, "typical_volume": 1331186.4, "trend": 0.214583, "fair_value": 0.101718, "relative_strength": -9.861039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.462863, "energy": 49.064549, "activity_lines": [ 0.163667, 0.168, 0.185524, 0.200946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.16, "volume": 574932, "typical_volume": 1040840.2, "trend": 0.21425, "fair_value": 0.102192, "relative_strength": -10.225931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.399185, "energy": 46.054039, "activity_lines": [ 0.163333, 0.165273, 0.181833, 0.197425 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.18, "volume": 621682, "typical_volume": 854031.0, "trend": 0.21325, "fair_value": 0.102801, "relative_strength": -3.522365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.725813, "energy": 34.237563, "activity_lines": [ 0.168333, 0.166909, 0.180429, 0.195215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }