{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3015077d-49f3-434c-8f21-35cd3da0e542", "symbol": "COK", "name": "Cancom SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 59.702, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 4.282, "architecture_energy": 3.838, "architecture_maturity": 22.842, "architecture_confidence": 86.356, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.99, "rotation_up": 30.56, "upward_expansion": 24.56, "deceleration": 44.07, "rotation_down": 28.7, "downward_expansion": 26.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.133334, 23.967551, 24.353855, 24.173766 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.9, "trend_reference": 24.221506, "distance_from_trend": 0.028012, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.711212, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.00764, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.827888, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033852, "excess_performance": -0.030788, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028012, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017269, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.00764, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011749, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048279, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065137, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033852, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.993587, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 275236, "relative_activity": 0.844762, "balance": 0.993587, "dry_up": 1.104111, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06893, "annualized_volatility": 0.403877, "from_high_reference": -0.120611, "from_low_reference": 0.291671 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.221506, "fair_value_reference": 24.711212, "structural_low": 19.27736, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.04634, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.011538, "regime_survival": 0.421053, "best_return": 0.199571, "worst_return": -0.331978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.083516, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.040448, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.1991, "worst_return": -0.378093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.065547, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.161484, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.183078, "worst_return": -0.53338, 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013245, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.152993, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020258, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094033, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -7.037671, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.72789, "energy": 29.705879, "activity_lines": [ 23.580771, 24.372528, 24.351243, 24.259455 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.4, "volume": 299938, "typical_volume": 362607.55, "trend": 24.382845, "fair_value": 24.673258, "relative_strength": -5.346575, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.116837, "energy": 38.269142, "activity_lines": [ 23.473333, 24.115786, 24.297181, 24.189507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.950001, "volume": 221725, "typical_volume": 353896.35, "trend": 24.333487, "fair_value": 24.676846, "relative_strength": -3.996939, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.284361, "energy": 28.917562, "activity_lines": [ 23.633334, 23.990722, 24.293266, 24.161582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.9, "volume": 642044, "typical_volume": 363548.9, "trend": 24.277656, "fair_value": 24.693127, "relative_strength": -6.177252, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.954351, "energy": 15.633374, "activity_lines": [ 23.756667, 23.866882, 24.279966, 24.133615 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.9, "volume": 275236, "typical_volume": 325814.8, "trend": 24.221506, "fair_value": 24.711212, "relative_strength": -4.827888, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.281717, "energy": 3.838328, "activity_lines": [ 24.133334, 23.967551, 24.353855, 24.173766 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }