{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30199e58-f8b2-4396-a186-aa0811ea901d", "symbol": "ARQQ", "name": "Arqit Quantum Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 77.669, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.277, "architecture_energy": 21.667, "architecture_maturity": 39.015, "architecture_confidence": 72.892, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.64, "rotation_up": 32.89, "upward_expansion": 60.39, "deceleration": 86.43, "rotation_down": 27.62, "downward_expansion": 15.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.126, 19.634273, 18.218024, 17.377903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.9, "trend_reference": 17.279833, "distance_from_trend": 0.325244, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.793253, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218522, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.932636, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.231845, "excess_performance": 0.044391, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.325244, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136023, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218522, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.464217, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179326, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.369849, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.231845, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.896971, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1700343, "relative_activity": 0.523429, "balance": 0.896971, "dry_up": 0.536687, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.241272, "annualized_volatility": 1.298375, "from_high_reference": -0.630645, "from_low_reference": 0.987847 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.279833, "fair_value_reference": 18.793253, "structural_low": 11.52, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.315254, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.307474, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.613005, "worst_return": 0.031659, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.259661, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.31025, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.041035, "worst_return": -0.381368, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.452542, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.559022, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.136364, "worst_return": -0.514556, 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.655656, "energy": 47.266078, "activity_lines": [ 21.64, 19.447727, 17.331357, 17.182376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.42, "volume": 2119342, "typical_volume": 3145640.45, "trend": 17.8645, "fair_value": 18.984407, "relative_strength": -38.227832, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.672915, "energy": 32.384531, "activity_lines": [ 20.457667, 19.355455, 17.458333, 17.136344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.65, "volume": 1627465, "typical_volume": 3184727.85, "trend": 17.659167, "fair_value": 18.897228, "relative_strength": -38.734114, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.3295, "energy": 8.265355, "activity_lines": [ 18.764, 19.078455, 17.507405, 17.057989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.13, "volume": 1526503, "typical_volume": 3206104.55, "trend": 17.412167, "fair_value": 18.819535, "relative_strength": -36.271834, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.975999, "energy": 9.598668, "activity_lines": [ 17.745667, 18.828545, 17.596286, 17.023849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.9, "volume": 1700343, "typical_volume": 3248470.75, "trend": 17.279833, "fair_value": 18.793253, "relative_strength": -17.932636, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.276782, "energy": 21.667336, "activity_lines": [ 19.126, 19.634273, 18.218024, 17.377903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }