{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30207a2b-7db5-4fae-848a-f1678070f16d", "symbol": "002641", "name": "Era Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.721, "architecture_energy": 58.342, "architecture_maturity": 42.249, "architecture_confidence": 86.093, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.94, "rotation_up": 12.48, "upward_expansion": 11.56, "deceleration": 40.6, "rotation_down": 65.5, "downward_expansion": 84.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.854, 3.919636, 4.018193, 4.084215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.86, "trend_reference": 4.187044, "distance_from_trend": -0.078109, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.412281, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.125169, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.077355, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.137923, "excess_performance": -0.145322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078109, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024419, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.125169, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068514, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120774, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069343, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.88503, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48392053, "relative_activity": 1.071261, "balance": 0.88503, "dry_up": 1.076036, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05736, "annualized_volatility": 0.202816, "from_high_reference": -0.308494, "from_low_reference": 0.04607 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.187044, "fair_value_reference": 4.412281, "structural_low": 3.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.007235, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": 0.004046, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.172489, "worst_return": -0.117318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.018353, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.011296, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.325459, "worst_return": -0.228223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.077755, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.077631, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.273648, "worst_return": -0.187625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 3.97, "volume": 46944975, "typical_volume": 48570638.0, "trend": 4.236224, "fair_value": 4.445559, "relative_strength": -7.503202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.38099, "energy": 58.639423, "activity_lines": [ 3.996667, 4.058682, 4.106767, 4.164527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.72, "volume": 54461359, "typical_volume": 47339811.05, "trend": 4.216943, "fair_value": 4.434198, "relative_strength": -13.152623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.889064, "energy": 66.592461, "activity_lines": [ 3.903333, 3.989623, 4.066157, 4.131222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.83, "volume": 44632749, "typical_volume": 46027796.45, "trend": 4.201659, "fair_value": 4.423297, "relative_strength": -8.68467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.165671, "energy": 57.74343, "activity_lines": [ 3.871333, 3.949091, 4.039347, 4.106258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.86, "volume": 48392053, "typical_volume": 45172989.95, "trend": 4.187044, "fair_value": 4.412281, "relative_strength": -12.077355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.721355, "energy": 58.341571, "activity_lines": [ 3.854, 3.919636, 4.018193, 4.084215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }