{ "ticker": { "uuid": "302271a5-8c0c-4907-b671-1010092470fa", "symbol": "RDHL", "name": "Redhill Biopharma Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.395, "architecture_energy": 74.25, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.219, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.19, "rotation_up": 10.61, "upward_expansion": 16.03, "deceleration": 38.2, "rotation_down": 78.34, "downward_expansion": 94.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.641993, 0.704331, 0.804111, 0.842892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.605, "trend_reference": 0.919045, "distance_from_trend": -0.341708, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.299505, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.917118, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.88557, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.434579, "excess_performance": -0.622033, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.341708, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123145, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.917118, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012851, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.528856, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142789, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.434579, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.485958, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 175703, "relative_activity": 0.23668, "balance": 0.485958, "dry_up": 0.415382, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230044, "annualized_volatility": 0.654083, "from_high_reference": -0.783154, "from_low_reference": 0.043283 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.919045, "fair_value_reference": 7.299505, "structural_low": 0.5799, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 55, "median_return": -0.099585, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.10082, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 3.473188, "worst_return": -0.584389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.368385, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.367901, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 2.53069, "worst_return": -0.700366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.608896, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.663661, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.07438, "worst_return": -0.832755, "sufficient": true }, 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"activity_lines": [ 0.704967, 0.77407, 0.849572, 0.884188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.65, "volume": 324270, "typical_volume": 736765.2, "trend": 0.941212, "fair_value": 7.428639, "relative_strength": -47.479677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.408972, "energy": 73.80091, "activity_lines": [ 0.67336, 0.740293, 0.82846, 0.864583 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.605, "volume": 175703, "typical_volume": 742364.4, "trend": 0.919045, "fair_value": 7.299505, "relative_strength": -52.88557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.394887, "energy": 74.249827, "activity_lines": [ 0.641993, 0.704331, 0.804111, 0.842892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }