{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3029ba3d-c676-4824-ab25-a4a05b799730", "symbol": "SUC", "name": "Saha-Union Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.736, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.484, "architecture_energy": 32.654, "architecture_maturity": 20.636, "architecture_confidence": 66.109, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.53, "rotation_up": 53.63, "upward_expansion": 76.03, "deceleration": 58.18, "rotation_down": 17.35, "downward_expansion": 2.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.45, 27.395455, 27.311967, 27.279004 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.5, "trend_reference": 27.131522, "distance_from_trend": 0.013581, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.276504, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.008194, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.633646, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.055046, "excess_performance": -0.137279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013581, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013938, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.008194, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003527, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126336, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017808, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055046, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.153333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 436500, "relative_activity": 1.276652, "balance": 1.153333, "dry_up": 1.357448, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012587, "annualized_volatility": 0.08818, "from_high_reference": -0.048729, "from_low_reference": 0.074584 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.131522, "fair_value_reference": 27.276504, "structural_low": 25.828261, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.007983, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.003346, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.065041, "worst_return": -0.047291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.02439, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014044, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": -0.000342, "worst_return": -0.084034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029624, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.069859, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.04065, "worst_return": -0.093333, "sufficient": true 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-15.816701, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.413241, "energy": 25.342105, "activity_lines": [ 27.25, 27.231818, 27.226139, 27.128032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.5, "volume": 571900, "typical_volume": 382070.0, "trend": 26.932754, "fair_value": 27.245721, "relative_strength": -14.949893, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.52872, "energy": 37.915584, "activity_lines": [ 27.333333, 27.286364, 27.244555, 27.167714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.5, "volume": 542200, "typical_volume": 367130.0, "trend": 26.98058, "fair_value": 27.25725, "relative_strength": -15.351369, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.078753, "energy": 40.96116, "activity_lines": [ 27.4, 27.331818, 27.264037, 27.20431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.25, "volume": 626000, "typical_volume": 345390.0, "trend": 27.027971, "fair_value": 27.265803, "relative_strength": -15.852579, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.927581, "energy": 28.720733, "activity_lines": [ 27.366667, 27.327273, 27.263033, 27.221692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.5, "volume": 251800, "typical_volume": 345035.0, "trend": 27.083696, "fair_value": 27.273213, "relative_strength": -13.629827, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.122725, "energy": 35.904286, "activity_lines": [ 27.416667, 27.363636, 27.286967, 27.252146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.5, "volume": 436500, "typical_volume": 341910.0, "trend": 27.131522, "fair_value": 27.276504, "relative_strength": -12.633646, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.484201, "energy": 32.653549, "activity_lines": [ 27.45, 27.395455, 27.311967, 27.279004 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }