{ "ticker": { "uuid": "302b7172-70b5-487e-bcf7-5154478835d9", "symbol": "PHAR", "name": "Pharming Group NV", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.138, "architecture_energy": 79.939, "architecture_maturity": 44.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.7, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.99, "rotation_up": 11.85, "upward_expansion": 18.25, "deceleration": 37.54, "rotation_down": 70.41, "downward_expansion": 89.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.581, 12.319496, 13.017149, 13.768667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.95, "trend_reference": 14.89683, "distance_from_trend": -0.264944, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.667178, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.06147, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.26183, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.319453, "excess_performance": -0.506907, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.264944, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090918, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.06147, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178851, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.372618, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113336, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.319453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.810923, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59784, "relative_activity": 1.024024, "balance": 0.810923, "dry_up": 0.872332, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117691, "annualized_volatility": 0.55943, "from_high_reference": -0.486879, "from_low_reference": 0.138254 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.89683, "fair_value_reference": 11.667178, "structural_low": 9.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.031069, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.010443, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.591428, "worst_return": -0.107114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.109515, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.084812, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.251908, "worst_return": -0.233019, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.04352, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.086493, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.403308, "worst_return": -0.241509, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156522, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036609, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.290279, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.167382, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.283206, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": 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31055, "typical_volume": 66156.85, "trend": 15.563663, "fair_value": 11.688044, "relative_strength": -20.566649, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.601971, "energy": 22.258078, "activity_lines": [ 13.576913, 13.300036, 13.914576, 14.57286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.615, "volume": 22731, "typical_volume": 62964.0, "trend": 15.39083, "fair_value": 11.691986, "relative_strength": -24.416987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.739257, "energy": 29.051464, "activity_lines": [ 13.294333, 13.208765, 13.732767, 14.382624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.08, "volume": 90142, "typical_volume": 62221.15, "trend": 15.155497, "fair_value": 11.676473, "relative_strength": -39.687862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.413895, "energy": 52.641745, "activity_lines": [ 12.184, 12.662131, 13.322982, 14.03999 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.95, "volume": 59784, "typical_volume": 58381.45, "trend": 14.89683, "fair_value": 11.667178, "relative_strength": -37.26183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.138152, "energy": 79.938799, "activity_lines": [ 11.581, 12.319496, 13.017149, 13.768667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }