{ "ticker": { "uuid": "302d9432-2dc5-476d-a4cf-6308fca6955e", "symbol": "DAUG", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY DEEP BUFFER ETF - AUGUST", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.946, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.649, "architecture_energy": 92.124, "architecture_maturity": 44.038, "architecture_confidence": 81.133, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.21, "rotation_up": 69.42, "upward_expansion": 99.12, "deceleration": 39.45, "rotation_down": 26.26, "downward_expansion": 21.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.231347, 47.033065, 46.67041, 46.149262 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 47.455, "trend_reference": 45.553287, "distance_from_trend": 0.041747, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.110136, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183117, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.507721, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.060897, "excess_performance": -0.064728, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041747, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020713, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183117, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 5.1e-05, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055077, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000249, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060897, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.03878, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24607, "relative_activity": 0.771724, "balance": 3.03878, "dry_up": 0.680955, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006485, "annualized_volatility": 0.061076, "from_high_reference": -0.000527, "from_low_reference": 0.118167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.553287, "fair_value_reference": 40.110136, "structural_low": 42.83, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.00809, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.006632, "regime_survival": 0.886364, "best_return": 0.049229, "worst_return": -0.036604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.03021, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.019109, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.061095, "worst_return": -0.015685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.05941, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.055298, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.086755, "worst_return": -0.075986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 46.622693, 46.532213, 45.945728, 45.541594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.07, "volume": 30489, "typical_volume": 39913.9, "trend": 45.187563, "fair_value": 39.783074, "relative_strength": -4.560643, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.67335, "energy": 89.067464, "activity_lines": [ 46.7889, 46.65106, 46.106485, 45.669235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.9894, "volume": 10003, "typical_volume": 36532.8, "trend": 45.279877, "fair_value": 39.862558, "relative_strength": -3.097839, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.507777, "energy": 89.025179, "activity_lines": [ 46.882427, 46.733947, 46.248225, 45.785483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.0024, "volume": 24702, "typical_volume": 33981.95, "trend": 45.36329, "fair_value": 39.940009, "relative_strength": -2.392162, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.991412, "energy": 88.502675, "activity_lines": [ 46.94964, 46.804124, 46.379969, 45.896613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.2848, "volume": 27539, "typical_volume": 33016.65, "trend": 45.46045, "fair_value": 40.024078, "relative_strength": -2.721379, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.759082, "energy": 91.87903, "activity_lines": [ 47.09212, 46.911165, 46.525263, 46.020582 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.455, "volume": 24607, "typical_volume": 31885.75, "trend": 45.553287, "fair_value": 40.110136, "relative_strength": -5.507721, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.648969, "energy": 92.124226, "activity_lines": [ 47.231347, 47.033065, 46.67041, 46.149262 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }