{ "ticker": { "uuid": "302e08a9-8673-4c45-ac62-7eab29b523dc", "symbol": "600506", "name": "Tongyi Carbon Neutral Technology (Xinjiang) Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.628, "architecture_energy": 50.171, "architecture_maturity": 35.168, "architecture_confidence": 86.134, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 19.53, "upward_expansion": 7.3, "deceleration": 56.43, "rotation_down": 59.08, "downward_expansion": 80.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.06, 14.254909, 15.346048, 15.96452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.54, "trend_reference": 17.019825, "distance_from_trend": -0.145702, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.243104, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.09793, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.167493, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.228511, "excess_performance": -0.185307, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145702, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090188, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.09793, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.347003, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151675, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129863, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228511, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.770734, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25311708, "relative_activity": 0.733984, "balance": 1.770734, "dry_up": 0.856013, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097926, "annualized_volatility": 0.338274, "from_high_reference": -0.481094, "from_low_reference": 0.158566 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.019825, "fair_value_reference": 13.243104, "structural_low": 12.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012062, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.030282, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.323809, "worst_return": -0.234595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.150481, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.066094, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.306513, "worst_return": -0.186439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.346495, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.433053, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.55818, "worst_return": 0.194995, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"down", "direction": -74.362544, "energy": 82.551535, "activity_lines": [ 14.493333, 15.587273, 16.267957, 16.870307 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.37, "volume": 29244292, "typical_volume": 42913534.55, "trend": 17.49398, "fair_value": 13.132573, "relative_strength": -18.951323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.886165, "energy": 85.242751, "activity_lines": [ 14.001333, 15.030727, 15.946688, 16.593556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.62, "volume": 38545494, "typical_volume": 37313001.45, "trend": 17.350209, "fair_value": 13.166143, "relative_strength": -18.262827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.408506, "energy": 75.071171, "activity_lines": [ 13.790667, 14.608364, 15.679365, 16.343621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.14, "volume": 24978214, "typical_volume": 35354389.05, "trend": 17.205859, "fair_value": 13.203145, "relative_strength": -15.364859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.650886, "energy": 58.004448, "activity_lines": [ 13.858, 14.357455, 15.48609, 16.136511 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.54, "volume": 25311708, "typical_volume": 34485374.45, "trend": 17.019825, "fair_value": 13.243104, "relative_strength": -15.167493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.62796, "energy": 50.170957, "activity_lines": [ 14.06, 14.254909, 15.346048, 15.96452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }