{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3036eaaa-2930-430b-8b06-547adf8fd572", "symbol": "300266", "name": "Xingyuan Environment Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.668, "architecture_energy": 58.551, "architecture_maturity": 74.628, "architecture_confidence": 95.129, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 27.04, "upward_expansion": 10.48, "deceleration": 59.55, "rotation_down": 53.94, "downward_expansion": 83.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.789333, 1.814727, 1.952143, 2.104194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.85, "trend_reference": 2.286333, "distance_from_trend": -0.190844, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.466154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.249844, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.560692, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.262948, "excess_performance": -0.270348, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.190844, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100577, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.249844, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144504, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275607, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034246, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.262948, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.661214, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99107262, "relative_activity": 1.078459, "balance": 0.661214, "dry_up": 1.03523, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088565, "annualized_volatility": 0.386355, "from_high_reference": -0.399351, "from_low_reference": 0.134969 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.286333, "fair_value_reference": 2.466154, "structural_low": 1.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.014211, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.001267, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.32716, "worst_return": -0.393258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.036393, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.066434, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.258621, "worst_return": -0.45283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.08046, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.069561, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.140496, "worst_return": -0.546816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.123563, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.095891, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.264463, "worst_return": -0.626543, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.515152, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.257353, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.268293, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00813, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055319, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011194, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099644, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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2.402667, "fair_value": 2.501538, "relative_strength": -35.413825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.816526, "energy": 86.057361, "activity_lines": [ 1.854, 1.937636, 2.126333, 2.25486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.74, "volume": 101668880, "typical_volume": 111477032.5, "trend": 2.367, "fair_value": 2.491282, "relative_strength": -31.60008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.84854, "energy": 88.813987, "activity_lines": [ 1.803333, 1.888909, 2.072619, 2.212108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.68, "volume": 84693836, "typical_volume": 105219076.5, "trend": 2.335333, "fair_value": 2.481282, "relative_strength": -33.392772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.496406, "energy": 84.853496, "activity_lines": [ 1.752, 1.839636, 2.017905, 2.167785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.81, "volume": 95068544, "typical_volume": 98300155.15, "trend": 2.310333, "fair_value": 2.473654, "relative_strength": -26.288219, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.270266, "energy": 64.050057, "activity_lines": [ 1.765333, 1.821455, 1.980762, 2.133892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.85, "volume": 99107262, "typical_volume": 91897087.8, "trend": 2.286333, "fair_value": 2.466154, "relative_strength": -27.560692, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.667801, "energy": 58.551495, "activity_lines": [ 1.789333, 1.814727, 1.952143, 2.104194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }