{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "303d03ca-8f50-4088-bbac-41aa9b01726a",
    "symbol": "JHS",
    "name": "John Hancock Income Securities Trust",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 68.159,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -41.86,
    "architecture_energy": 23.199,
    "architecture_maturity": 12.957,
    "architecture_confidence": 74.238,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 57.77,
        "rotation_up": 18.87,
        "upward_expansion": 3.74,
        "deceleration": 46.37,
        "rotation_down": 41.47,
        "downward_expansion": 67.74
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        10.923333,
        10.941226,
        10.950698,
        10.967561
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 10.94,
    "trend_reference": 11.043512,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.009373,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 10.377342,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.05422,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -12.304805,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.038343,
    "excess_performance": -0.163968,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.009373,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008412,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.05422,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022455,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.123048,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.01192,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.038343,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.63763,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 71234,
      "relative_activity": 0.984567,
      "balance": 0.63763,
      "dry_up": 0.603067,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.015662,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.076648,
      "from_high_reference": -0.056137,
      "from_low_reference": 0.032895
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 11.043512,
      "fair_value_reference": 10.377342,
      "structural_low": 10.591592,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 17,
        "median_return": -0.008167,
        "positive_rate": 0.411765,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.411765,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010631,
        "regime_survival": 0.588235,
        "best_return": 0.041787,
        "worst_return": -0.075333,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.005272,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016191,
        "regime_survival": 0.142857,
        "best_return": 0.077366,
        "worst_return": -0.095331,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.027898,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.046866,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.053465,
        "worst_return": -0.132591,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.034276,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.154365,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.084999,
        "worst_return": -0.303927,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-01-19",
        "end": "2024-02-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.010064,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-03-01",
        "end": "2024-03-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.037376,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-29",
        "end": "2024-06-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.019198,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-07-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.022936,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-26",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.027994,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.011488,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.040224,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.039361,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.005186,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.018325,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.033028,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.01104,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.013089,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.00726,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "trend": 11.183218,
        "fair_value": 10.219067,
        "relative_strength": -8.820879,
        "stage": 3,
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "energy": 22.949976,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 24.600161,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 10.995927,
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        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -10.877375,
        "stage": 4,
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        "energy": 30.877563,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 82554.85,
        "trend": 11.124889,
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        "relative_strength": -11.203568,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.80814,
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      },
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        "energy": 24.948649,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 11.103685,
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        "relative_strength": -8.378268,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -44.234394,
        "energy": 23.439765,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 11.02,
        "volume": 47645,
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        "trend": 11.099363,
        "fair_value": 10.326317,
        "relative_strength": -9.724785,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -21.194782,
        "energy": 11.35213,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 10.99,
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        "typical_volume": 84102.35,
        "trend": 11.093632,
        "fair_value": 10.33706,
        "relative_strength": -10.90577,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -18.810313,
        "energy": 11.468312,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.988,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 10.96,
        "volume": 26611,
        "typical_volume": 83042.15,
        "trend": 11.086902,
        "fair_value": 10.3475,
        "relative_strength": -9.499054,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -17.71727,
        "energy": 9.672023,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.984667,
          10.966329,
          10.959373,
          11.00039
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 10.84,
        "volume": 46850,
        "typical_volume": 76913.7,
        "trend": 11.073249,
        "fair_value": 10.356617,
        "relative_strength": -9.716836,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -51.758746,
        "energy": 22.956005,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.935333,
          10.94601,
          10.950051,
          10.984461
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 10.93,
        "volume": 29834,
        "typical_volume": 72201.35,
        "trend": 11.058701,
        "fair_value": 10.366975,
        "relative_strength": -9.639698,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -41.244279,
        "energy": 21.807428,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.926,
          10.942379,
          10.95,
          10.975219
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 10.94,
        "volume": 71234,
        "typical_volume": 72350.6,
        "trend": 11.043512,
        "fair_value": 10.377342,
        "relative_strength": -12.304805,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -41.860039,
        "energy": 23.199176,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.923333,
          10.941226,
          10.950698,
          10.967561
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}