{ "ticker": { "uuid": "303ff271-90e0-4a11-8932-c7d4c70413e0", "symbol": "IGB", "name": "iShares Treasury ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.134, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.526, "architecture_energy": 20.408, "architecture_maturity": 41.651, "architecture_confidence": 75.255, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.78, "rotation_up": 26.91, "upward_expansion": 56.99, "deceleration": 87.42, "rotation_down": 31.65, "downward_expansion": 20.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 96.781998, 96.906023, 96.672853, 96.52321 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 96.839996, "trend_reference": 96.425253, "distance_from_trend": 0.004301, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 94.326824, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.026643, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.967217, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006067, "excess_performance": -0.057639, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004301, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000563, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.026643, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005911, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049672, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036826, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006067, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.625478, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41866, "relative_activity": 0.58991, "balance": 0.625478, "dry_up": 0.511141, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006497, "annualized_volatility": 0.037169, "from_high_reference": -0.022437, "from_low_reference": 0.02021 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.425253, "fair_value_reference": 94.326824, "structural_low": 94.921638, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003052, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.01099, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.022888, "worst_return": -0.024732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.003798, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004756, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.023822, "worst_return": -0.015219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001145, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050182, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.013601, "worst_return": -0.076513, "sufficient": false }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011132, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003887, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021053, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002576, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.227252, "energy": 59.107951, "activity_lines": [ 97.139802, 96.99422, 96.5714, 96.472923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 96.139999, "volume": 33558, "typical_volume": 69486.4, "trend": 96.395861, "fair_value": 94.233241, "relative_strength": -0.549447, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.449432, "energy": 20.053425, "activity_lines": [ 96.796965, 96.88225, 96.555698, 96.456236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 97.019997, "volume": 42428, "typical_volume": 70816.9, "trend": 96.426036, "fair_value": 94.281475, "relative_strength": -1.854108, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.698447, "energy": 21.304799, "activity_lines": [ 96.804666, 96.917195, 96.625496, 96.496503 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 96.839996, "volume": 41866, "typical_volume": 70970.1, "trend": 96.425253, "fair_value": 94.326824, "relative_strength": -4.967217, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.526268, "energy": 20.407986, "activity_lines": [ 96.781998, 96.906023, 96.672853, 96.52321 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }