{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30409356-8432-4667-88f6-90eeec6b273a", "symbol": "TRH1V", "name": "Trainers' House Oyj", "exchange": "HEL", "country": "FI", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-18", "benchmark": "^OMXH25", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.672, "architecture_energy": 47.399, "architecture_maturity": 9.691, "architecture_confidence": 91.401, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.37, "rotation_up": 18.3, "upward_expansion": 12.71, "deceleration": 36.27, "rotation_down": 58.65, "downward_expansion": 79.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.181333, 2.225455, 2.22981, 2.278504 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.12, "trend_reference": 2.345487, "distance_from_trend": -0.096137, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.462442, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.139066, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.466847, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.192392, "excess_performance": -0.315967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096137, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056794, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.139066, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012356, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194668, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025897, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.192392, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.342811, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2009, "relative_activity": 0.626081, "balance": 0.342811, "dry_up": 1.35882, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077649, "annualized_volatility": 0.421076, "from_high_reference": -0.341415, "from_low_reference": 0.084729 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.345487, "fair_value_reference": 2.462442, "structural_low": 2.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.00431, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026985, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.354467, "worst_return": -0.171569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.024284, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.061873, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.243094, "worst_return": -0.156177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.028236, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.113204, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.072096, "worst_return": -0.128501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045045, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135922, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.113044, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.194173, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", 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2.4, "volume": 4589, "typical_volume": 2619.55, "trend": 2.419487, "fair_value": 2.491479, "relative_strength": -8.357996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.942579, "energy": 8.280111, "activity_lines": [ 2.32, 2.273091, 2.271143, 2.332107 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 2.28, "volume": 10695, "typical_volume": 3095.7, "trend": 2.402238, "fair_value": 2.484829, "relative_strength": -14.054013, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.346993, "energy": 13.815762, "activity_lines": [ 2.314667, 2.280364, 2.266381, 2.323108 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 2.2, "volume": 1703, "typical_volume": 3121.95, "trend": 2.381683, "fair_value": 2.477493, "relative_strength": -15.945578, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.673145, "energy": 14.190641, "activity_lines": [ 2.286667, 2.271273, 2.256, 2.31006 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 2.14, "volume": 3034, "typical_volume": 3226.75, "trend": 2.367431, "fair_value": 2.470348, "relative_strength": -18.876375, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.988595, "energy": 22.451089, "activity_lines": [ 2.232, 2.249455, 2.242762, 2.294468 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 2.12, "volume": 2009, "typical_volume": 3208.85, "trend": 2.345487, "fair_value": 2.462442, "relative_strength": -19.466847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.672437, "energy": 47.39935, "activity_lines": [ 2.181333, 2.225455, 2.22981, 2.278504 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }