{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3055013a-c4ca-45c1-a370-aac2759712e9", "symbol": "SIJ", "name": "PROSHARES ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIALS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.517, "architecture_energy": 44.074, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.757, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.12, "rotation_up": 25.04, "upward_expansion": 5.68, "deceleration": 58.64, "rotation_down": 50.61, "downward_expansion": 79.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.01294, 16.115237, 16.721999, 17.268528 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.5074, "trend_reference": 17.890151, "distance_from_trend": -0.133188, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.951935, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.482257, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.261422, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138109, "excess_performance": -0.263733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133188, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101017, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.482257, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031111, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.312614, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028484, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138109, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.241372, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12930, "relative_activity": 0.240595, "balance": 0.241372, "dry_up": 0.182414, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077706, "annualized_volatility": 0.273687, "from_high_reference": -0.374363, "from_low_reference": 0.030392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.890151, "fair_value_reference": 29.951935, "structural_low": 15.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.011441, "positive_rate": 0.414634, "directional_follow_through": 0.585366, "median_excess_return": -0.033153, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.224153, "worst_return": -0.151685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.017108, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.04083, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.213642, "worst_return": -0.217627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.093938, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.174394, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.069457, "worst_return": -0.270682, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.984125, "energy": 63.689132, "activity_lines": [ 16.154826, 16.532919, 17.247895, 17.708107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.9881, "volume": 15450, "typical_volume": 69901.7, "trend": 18.23351, "fair_value": 30.312975, "relative_strength": -27.450236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.174074, "energy": 54.775055, "activity_lines": [ 16.107313, 16.36275, 17.060185, 17.550692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.41, "volume": 8402, "typical_volume": 58070.1, "trend": 18.057433, "fair_value": 30.133948, "relative_strength": -25.541445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.246433, "energy": 40.023589, "activity_lines": [ 16.219607, 16.309459, 16.925498, 17.433046 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.5074, "volume": 12930, "typical_volume": 53741.8, "trend": 17.890151, "fair_value": 29.951935, "relative_strength": -31.261422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.516573, "energy": 44.073812, "activity_lines": [ 16.01294, 16.115237, 16.721999, 17.268528 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }