{ "ticker": { "uuid": "305c8bec-843b-45aa-ba81-f9c5def2dbe6", "symbol": "SFB", "name": "Stifel Financial Corporation 5.20% Senior Notes due 2047", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 76.962, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.806, "architecture_energy": 12.615, "architecture_maturity": 17.542, "architecture_confidence": 66.513, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.29, "rotation_up": 36.71, "upward_expansion": 33.69, "deceleration": 41.12, "rotation_down": 22.04, "downward_expansion": 42.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.687693, 19.639292, 19.626004, 19.663292 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.66, "trend_reference": 19.777643, "distance_from_trend": -0.005948, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.596534, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003239, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.236251, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.025385, "excess_performance": -0.15101, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005948, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01544, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.003239, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018593, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132363, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009629, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025385, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.111916, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62371, "relative_activity": 0.977443, "balance": 1.111916, "dry_up": 1.01737, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014436, "annualized_volatility": 0.072995, "from_high_reference": -0.093854, "from_low_reference": 0.027168 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.777643, "fair_value_reference": 19.596534, "structural_low": 19.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.000379, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.019413, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.123633, "worst_return": -0.149626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.032534, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.062767, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.211505, "worst_return": -0.162583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.012684, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.087913, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.110164, "worst_return": -0.10408, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068561, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047811, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058158, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027589, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031986, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": 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"close": 19.74, "volume": 62625, "typical_volume": 63142.2, "trend": 19.833434, "fair_value": 19.566038, "relative_strength": -10.354165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.706103, "energy": 15.733015, "activity_lines": [ 19.629294, 19.554311, 19.601423, 19.686172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.7118, "volume": 85092, "typical_volume": 64817.05, "trend": 19.816337, "fair_value": 19.57437, "relative_strength": -9.708876, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.164634, "energy": 16.038751, "activity_lines": [ 19.667133, 19.586705, 19.61043, 19.678325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.72, "volume": 49587, "typical_volume": 63492.4, "trend": 19.796679, "fair_value": 19.585287, "relative_strength": -10.297706, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.668253, "energy": 14.530634, "activity_lines": [ 19.693813, 19.620288, 19.621379, 19.67211 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.66, "volume": 62371, "typical_volume": 63810.35, "trend": 19.777643, "fair_value": 19.596534, "relative_strength": -13.236251, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.805589, "energy": 12.615301, "activity_lines": [ 19.687693, 19.639292, 19.626004, 19.663292 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }