{ "ticker": { "uuid": "305da1df-6162-4b39-9287-6f02dfd2eed8", "symbol": "TRN", "name": "Trinity Industries Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.626, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -6.084, "architecture_energy": 9.824, "architecture_maturity": 17.541, "architecture_confidence": 66.285, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.19, "rotation_up": 24.51, "upward_expansion": 51.79, "deceleration": 74.77, "rotation_down": 34.05, "downward_expansion": 27.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.001053, 33.883919, 33.972923, 33.572982 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.9, "trend_reference": 32.738989, "distance_from_trend": -0.086716, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.153799, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.062024, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.737097, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007016, "excess_performance": -0.132641, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086716, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084252, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.062024, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288248, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117371, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276038, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007016, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.804602, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4099593, "relative_activity": 1.164026, "balance": 0.804602, "dry_up": 1.153264, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098996, "annualized_volatility": 0.47602, "from_high_reference": -0.219423, "from_low_reference": 0.23252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.738989, "fair_value_reference": 28.153799, "structural_low": 28.773657, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.034091, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.021589, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.150915, "worst_return": -0.139201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.196752, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.140201, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.228703, "worst_return": -0.144046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.060165, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.073584, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.306737, "worst_return": 0.037677, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013503, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007407, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071705, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156214, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": 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36.47, "volume": 3495500, "typical_volume": 3387377.65, "trend": 32.15719, "fair_value": 27.967397, "relative_strength": 12.525956, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.162223, "energy": 47.696779, "activity_lines": [ 35.410756, 34.724671, 34.193188, 33.494304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.41, "volume": 2830060, "typical_volume": 3383396.6, "trend": 32.506063, "fair_value": 28.059449, "relative_strength": 15.592255, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.986428, "energy": 51.005149, "activity_lines": [ 36.169864, 35.302723, 34.57568, 33.833195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.24, "volume": 5821606, "typical_volume": 3537361.25, "trend": 32.667231, "fair_value": 28.112408, "relative_strength": -4.675024, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.444042, "energy": 15.515819, "activity_lines": [ 34.656718, 34.701685, 34.342874, 33.751513 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.9, "volume": 4099593, "typical_volume": 3521908.15, "trend": 32.738989, "fair_value": 28.153799, "relative_strength": -11.737097, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.083847, "energy": 9.824331, "activity_lines": [ 33.001053, 33.883919, 33.972923, 33.572982 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }