{ "ticker": { "uuid": "305f725b-6693-403f-9295-739e40b95e9a", "symbol": "PATH", "name": "Uipath Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 67.693, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 55.825, "architecture_energy": 63.028, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.116, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.34, "rotation_up": 72.17, "upward_expansion": 62.39, "deceleration": 21.12, "rotation_down": 19.89, "downward_expansion": 23.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.986, 12.200182, 11.575667, 11.425527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.05, "trend_reference": 11.540667, "distance_from_trend": 0.304084, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.645833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027596, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.22323, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.167572, "excess_performance": 0.041947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.304084, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102801, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027596, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.311984, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.052232, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.310912, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.167572, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.153243, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 330862743, "relative_activity": 1.424264, "balance": 1.153243, "dry_up": 1.786518, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105998, "annualized_volatility": 0.616497, "from_high_reference": -0.241431, "from_low_reference": 0.635834 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.540667, "fair_value_reference": 14.645833, "structural_low": 9.2002, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.084195, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.052353, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.423699, "worst_return": -0.184403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.078004, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.052333, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.379197, "worst_return": -0.152502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.227688, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.076787, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.684211, "worst_return": -0.050873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.323997, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.137731, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.562193, "worst_return": 0.085801, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116166, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011101, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.325697, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077971, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.15, "volume": 493248137, "typical_volume": 208603684.95, "trend": 11.887, "fair_value": 14.710256, "relative_strength": -11.910871, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.125366, "energy": 11.570653, "activity_lines": [ 11.595333, 11.284182, 11.034905, 11.200172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.84, "volume": 564446531, "typical_volume": 227947789.3, "trend": 11.687, "fair_value": 14.668013, "relative_strength": -20.561243, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.009583, "energy": 15.370209, "activity_lines": [ 11.452667, 11.236, 11.01919, 11.132624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.76, "volume": 271506391, "typical_volume": 223459581.8, "trend": 11.583, "fair_value": 14.646731, "relative_strength": -7.409721, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.714003, "energy": 32.309719, "activity_lines": [ 11.912, 11.526545, 11.19119, 11.201849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.05, "volume": 330862743, "typical_volume": 232304398.1, "trend": 11.540667, "fair_value": 14.645833, "relative_strength": 5.22323, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 55.824699, "energy": 63.02817, "activity_lines": [ 12.986, 12.200182, 11.575667, 11.425527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }