{ "ticker": { "uuid": "305fd702-e0d3-4e4c-a326-c3cb1e908b16", "symbol": "GIGA", "name": "Gigas Hosting, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.959, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.172, "architecture_energy": 21.274, "architecture_maturity": 14.966, "architecture_confidence": 84.345, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.57, "rotation_up": 23.78, "upward_expansion": 3.97, "deceleration": 49.16, "rotation_down": 40.0, "downward_expansion": 72.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.155333, 3.168909, 3.171286, 3.224839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.16, "trend_reference": 3.319333, "distance_from_trend": -0.048002, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.867756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.461464, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.979778, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.168421, "excess_performance": -0.292852, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048002, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038989, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.461464, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075529, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.289798, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12684, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.168421, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.003124, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40253, "relative_activity": 1.764329, "balance": 1.003124, "dry_up": 1.482102, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073272, "annualized_volatility": 0.34236, "from_high_reference": -0.430631, "from_low_reference": 0.157509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.319333, "fair_value_reference": 5.867756, "structural_low": 2.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.02213, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.007704, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.139175, "worst_return": -0.158151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.034226, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.054251, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149485, "worst_return": -0.233498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.113066, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.126844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090278, "worst_return": -0.237438, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.138889, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.377679, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056701, "worst_return": -0.316256, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107769, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.158151, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.162857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070513, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113475, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047337, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038217, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179487, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046154, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.521212, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030675, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.94, "volume": 796, "typical_volume": 17874.15, "trend": 8.297, "fair_value": 9.495641, "relative_strength": -18.558727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", 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-29.731936, "energy": 18.018922, "activity_lines": [ 3.194, 3.176727, 3.211524, 3.278624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.16, "volume": 131965, "typical_volume": 21147.0, "trend": 3.326333, "fair_value": 5.987051, "relative_strength": -31.055906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.854446, "energy": 23.179002, "activity_lines": [ 3.174667, 3.180545, 3.200048, 3.267548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.26, "volume": 39749, "typical_volume": 19653.9, "trend": 3.327, "fair_value": 5.95859, "relative_strength": -27.032597, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.423194, "energy": 14.368751, "activity_lines": [ 3.202, 3.201091, 3.199714, 3.263269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.07, "volume": 14788, "typical_volume": 19518.95, "trend": 3.328, "fair_value": 5.927756, "relative_strength": -31.232433, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.378841, "energy": 21.916211, "activity_lines": [ 3.162, 3.180545, 3.182905, 3.246688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.16, "volume": 40466, "typical_volume": 21224.1, "trend": 3.330667, "fair_value": 5.898397, "relative_strength": -28.712511, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.915092, "energy": 21.792885, "activity_lines": [ 3.165333, 3.175091, 3.176429, 3.235849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.16, "volume": 40253, "typical_volume": 22814.9, "trend": 3.319333, "fair_value": 5.867756, "relative_strength": -28.979778, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.172207, "energy": 21.27395, "activity_lines": [ 3.155333, 3.168909, 3.171286, 3.224839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }