{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "306bd29d-f1a7-40cf-b172-345a702dc663",
    "symbol": "AGNC",
    "name": "AGNC Investment Corp.",
    "exchange": "MEX",
    "country": "MX",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^MXX",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 51.402,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 13.663,
    "architecture_energy": 15.364,
    "architecture_maturity": 19.521,
    "architecture_confidence": 66.884,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 57.75,
        "rotation_up": 45.48,
        "upward_expansion": 34.68,
        "deceleration": 41.82,
        "rotation_down": 21.35,
        "downward_expansion": 18.68
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        188.096324,
        187.705576,
        185.738138,
        185.754413
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 186.009995,
    "trend_reference": 187.958391,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.010366,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 180.684144,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029476,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -3.070269,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.067554,
    "excess_performance": -0.012887,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.010366,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.010411,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.029476,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.01232,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.030703,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063196,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.067554,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.929832,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 7033,
      "relative_activity": 2.495565,
      "balance": 1.929832,
      "dry_up": 1.135122,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031689,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.179649,
      "from_high_reference": -0.117744,
      "from_low_reference": 0.069693
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 187.958391,
      "fair_value_reference": 180.684144,
      "structural_low": 175.051036,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.024903,
        "positive_rate": 0.375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.375,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013886,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.038011,
        "worst_return": -0.132304,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.162821,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": -0.179308,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.004626,
        "worst_return": -0.212299,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.117373,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": -0.231904,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.102739,
        "worst_return": -0.242389,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.075512,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.404842,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.14287,
        "worst_return": -0.331312,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.019206,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.04759,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009998,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.054849,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.076487,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.04905,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.05041,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-09-12",
        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.036207,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-17",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.033128,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.036655,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.094558,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.093615,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.020808,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.004666,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "volume": 330,
        "typical_volume": 2946.65,
        "trend": 177.695588,
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        "relative_strength": -16.838175,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
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      },
      {
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "volume": 4925,
        "typical_volume": 2147.6,
        "trend": 190.338368,
        "fair_value": 178.823035,
        "relative_strength": -3.995696,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 186.486954,
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        "typical_volume": 2442.9,
        "trend": 190.485288,
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        "relative_strength": -9.389878,
        "stage": 3,
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        "energy": 27.725113,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 180.380981,
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        "typical_volume": 2513.1,
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        "fair_value": 179.145256,
        "relative_strength": -9.69365,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -46.404248,
        "energy": 26.851176,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 178.382309,
        "volume": 6074,
        "typical_volume": 2810.85,
        "trend": 190.139616,
        "fair_value": 179.325611,
        "relative_strength": -10.97343,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.11724,
        "energy": 38.178121,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 182.0,
        "volume": 2013,
        "typical_volume": 2899.3,
        "trend": 189.935908,
        "fair_value": 179.490852,
        "relative_strength": -9.306164,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -53.494988,
        "energy": 48.702939,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 176.047192,
        "volume": 782,
        "typical_volume": 2921.0,
        "trend": 189.523153,
        "fair_value": 179.555345,
        "relative_strength": -8.83046,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.427933,
        "energy": 70.925778,
        "activity_lines": [
          179.375454,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 178.018003,
        "volume": 1969,
        "typical_volume": 3000.0,
        "trend": 189.280632,
        "fair_value": 179.594917,
        "relative_strength": -10.009939,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.11139,
        "energy": 69.650516,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 178.913884,
        "volume": 0,
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        "trend": 189.023834,
        "fair_value": 179.659009,
        "relative_strength": -8.919929,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -61.952623,
        "energy": 66.828876,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 183.266022,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2863.4,
        "trend": 188.79595,
        "fair_value": 179.750253,
        "relative_strength": -5.808784,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -57.391173,
        "energy": 43.86533,
        "activity_lines": [
          180.008936,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 190.829391,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2816.65,
        "trend": 188.749446,
        "fair_value": 179.946349,
        "relative_strength": -1.557827,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -13.156579,
        "energy": 11.418209,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 193.997391,
        "volume": 10030,
        "typical_volume": 3033.8,
        "trend": 189.039337,
        "fair_value": 180.127052,
        "relative_strength": 1.076048,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 16.090373,
        "energy": 28.126883,
        "activity_lines": [
          187.92989,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 196.3759,
        "volume": 2140,
        "typical_volume": 2606.55,
        "trend": 189.209263,
        "fair_value": 180.308597,
        "relative_strength": 2.199709,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 42.140095,
        "energy": 48.092152,
        "activity_lines": [
          191.720211,
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          185.092437,
          186.268218
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 186.881897,
        "volume": 1270,
        "typical_volume": 2615.5,
        "trend": 188.996306,
        "fair_value": 180.441078,
        "relative_strength": -2.187111,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 23.46085,
        "energy": 41.571208,
        "activity_lines": [
          191.122004,
          187.286334,
          185.358373,
          186.118065
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 186.0,
        "volume": 2353,
        "typical_volume": 2506.1,
        "trend": 188.650302,
        "fair_value": 180.567906,
        "relative_strength": -3.240849,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 19.264505,
        "energy": 32.957467,
        "activity_lines": [
          189.698631,
          187.564298,
          185.553398,
          185.924755
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 186.009995,
        "volume": 7033,
        "typical_volume": 2818.2,
        "trend": 187.958391,
        "fair_value": 180.684144,
        "relative_strength": -3.070269,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 13.663453,
        "energy": 15.363985,
        "activity_lines": [
          188.096324,
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          185.754413
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}