{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3072e38f-1787-4161-8d1e-04549e5df426", "symbol": "C40", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - AMUNDI CAC 40 ESG UCITS ETF DR - EUR (C)", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.072, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.08, "architecture_energy": 61.582, "architecture_maturity": 22.638, "architecture_confidence": 86.376, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.21, "rotation_up": 56.82, "upward_expansion": 81.49, "deceleration": 55.77, "rotation_down": 22.57, "downward_expansion": 10.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 150.331999, 149.586545, 146.88381, 144.905591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 154.259995, "trend_reference": 143.354667, "distance_from_trend": 0.076072, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 131.930294, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169254, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.120239, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068283, "excess_performance": 0.014971, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076072, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013327, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169254, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0842, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011202, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020553, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068283, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.404759, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25570, "relative_activity": 0.658603, "balance": 1.404759, "dry_up": 0.6013, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023876, "annualized_volatility": 0.184238, "from_high_reference": -0.002973, "from_low_reference": 0.211783 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 143.354667, "fair_value_reference": 131.930294, "structural_low": 127.300003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -5.6e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000268, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.1106, "worst_return": -0.118373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.003285, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.002144, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.105455, "worst_return": -0.097552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.055422, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.011503, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.128698, "worst_return": -0.151638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.468366, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.073615, "energy": 43.641108, "activity_lines": [ 148.106667, 147.871274, 145.085143, 143.744645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 149.800003, "volume": 19482, "typical_volume": 40022.45, "trend": 143.124, "fair_value": 131.700807, "relative_strength": 0.579214, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.968416, "energy": 41.424312, "activity_lines": [ 148.504001, 148.397456, 145.80581, 144.18714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 154.259995, "volume": 25570, "typical_volume": 38824.6, "trend": 143.354667, "fair_value": 131.930294, "relative_strength": 1.120239, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.079506, "energy": 61.582338, "activity_lines": [ 150.331999, 149.586545, 146.88381, 144.905591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }