{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3074f6ff-c02f-4193-bc12-4372c9393806", "symbol": "VNGA20", "name": "Vanguard LifeStrategy 20% Equity UCITS ETF (EUR) Accumulating", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 88.956, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.616, "architecture_energy": 23.459, "architecture_maturity": 48.951, "architecture_confidence": 72.054, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.87, "rotation_up": 26.96, "upward_expansion": 57.29, "deceleration": 87.45, "rotation_down": 33.47, "downward_expansion": 20.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.998333, 26.051727, 26.004405, 25.913527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.1, "trend_reference": 25.8225, "distance_from_trend": 0.010746, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.382981, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070419, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.838415, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.016949, "excess_performance": -0.153943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010746, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007491, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070419, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00576, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128384, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027595, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016949, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.691865, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25919, "relative_activity": 0.892308, "balance": 0.691865, "dry_up": 1.347895, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007972, "annualized_volatility": 0.051668, "from_high_reference": -0.015837, "from_low_reference": 0.049879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.8225, "fair_value_reference": 24.382981, "structural_low": 25.01, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012562, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.004109, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.018995, "worst_return": 0.00372, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.01348, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.031756, "worst_return": -0.006656, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.027212, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.136869, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055952, "worst_return": -0.004289, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 24.290769, "relative_strength": -12.363265, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.304665, "energy": 64.134872, "activity_lines": [ 26.168001, 26.106546, 25.94481, 25.863076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.025, "volume": 47440, "typical_volume": 29194.0, "trend": 25.783167, "fair_value": 24.313494, "relative_strength": -11.082132, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.317446, "energy": 51.201158, "activity_lines": [ 26.124, 26.103728, 25.964524, 25.879893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.924999, "volume": 30943, "typical_volume": 27788.0, "trend": 25.797, "fair_value": 24.33532, "relative_strength": -10.960338, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.286991, "energy": 28.882166, "activity_lines": [ 26.05, 26.080636, 25.97481, 25.889043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.885, "volume": 52308, "typical_volume": 28996.25, "trend": 25.8085, "fair_value": 24.358237, "relative_strength": -11.345812, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.192703, "energy": 21.855445, "activity_lines": [ 25.977, 26.046636, 25.980453, 25.894721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.1, "volume": 25919, "typical_volume": 29047.15, "trend": 25.8225, "fair_value": 24.382981, "relative_strength": -12.838415, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.615909, "energy": 23.458507, "activity_lines": [ 25.998333, 26.051727, 26.004405, 25.913527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }