{ "ticker": { "uuid": "307622a9-1c9d-42d5-a005-aead686d433c", "symbol": "ELZ", "name": "Asturiana de Laminados, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.349, "architecture_energy": 86.648, "architecture_maturity": 36.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.355, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.2, "rotation_up": 9.88, "upward_expansion": 19.92, "deceleration": 37.21, "rotation_down": 80.42, "downward_expansion": 95.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.07504, 0.079633, 0.085303, 0.089622 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.07, "trend_reference": 0.093947, "distance_from_trend": -0.254896, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.12343, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.432878, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.748331, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.253731, "excess_performance": -0.378162, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.254896, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043118, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.432878, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110919, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.397483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176557, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.253731, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.171481, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 207186, "relative_activity": 0.814294, "balance": 0.171481, "dry_up": 1.094901, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109121, "annualized_volatility": 0.408914, "from_high_reference": -0.578313, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.093947, "fair_value_reference": 0.12343, "structural_low": 0.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.02907, "positive_rate": 0.342857, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.039563, "regime_survival": 0.885714, "best_return": 0.330898, "worst_return": -0.242449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.121535, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.135477, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.273486, "worst_return": -0.282421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.13148, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.215892, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.178744, "worst_return": -0.403458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 320667.15, "trend": 0.095927, "fair_value": 0.127389, "relative_strength": -30.927413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.592221, "energy": 63.675637, "activity_lines": [ 0.08648, 0.088658, 0.09244, 0.094801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.075, "volume": 563060, "typical_volume": 303331.25, "trend": 0.095527, "fair_value": 0.126363, "relative_strength": -34.743431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.599165, "energy": 82.791251, "activity_lines": [ 0.08208, 0.085924, 0.090401, 0.093451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0812, "volume": 102177, "typical_volume": 270814.8, "trend": 0.0954, "fair_value": 0.125339, "relative_strength": -29.814731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.7605, "energy": 76.631896, "activity_lines": [ 0.080773, 0.084636, 0.089116, 0.092527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0752, "volume": 241908, "typical_volume": 266498.5, "trend": 0.09482, "fair_value": 0.124398, "relative_strength": -34.773397, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.745142, "energy": 80.852226, "activity_lines": [ 0.07828, 0.082407, 0.087371, 0.091223 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.07, "volume": 207186, "typical_volume": 254436.5, "trend": 0.093947, "fair_value": 0.12343, "relative_strength": -39.748331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.349078, "energy": 86.647863, "activity_lines": [ 0.07504, 0.079633, 0.085303, 0.089622 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }