{ "ticker": { "uuid": "307b31aa-6b14-40fa-8282-4c1ac5c3684c", "symbol": "CITY", "name": "iShares Smart City Infrastructure UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.452, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.761, "architecture_energy": 27.505, "architecture_maturity": 66.855, "architecture_confidence": 75.21, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.51, "rotation_up": 28.06, "upward_expansion": 55.02, "deceleration": 91.07, "rotation_down": 32.21, "downward_expansion": 21.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.093933, 9.121764, 9.11739, 8.966551 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.398, "trend_reference": 8.757067, "distance_from_trend": 0.07319, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.365687, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275916, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.772388, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.143587, "excess_performance": -0.027304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07319, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051748, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275916, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012206, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037724, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048731, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.143587, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.406571, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36769, "relative_activity": 0.409962, "balance": 0.406571, "dry_up": 0.785716, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024441, "annualized_volatility": 0.151119, "from_high_reference": -0.008441, "from_low_reference": 0.250067 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.757067, "fair_value_reference": 7.365687, "structural_low": 7.9, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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"2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044829, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092642, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.18106, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002319, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020651, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.711111, "energy": 44.911377, "activity_lines": [ 9.216867, 9.231255, 9.057624, 8.868987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.961, "volume": 85144, "typical_volume": 90837.35, "trend": 8.647367, "fair_value": 7.308808, "relative_strength": -5.390695, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.607709, "energy": 31.214027, "activity_lines": [ 9.130667, 9.183145, 9.068314, 8.891662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.942, "volume": 55690, "typical_volume": 89623.25, "trend": 8.682667, "fair_value": 7.326424, "relative_strength": -5.315224, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.303255, "energy": 23.400841, "activity_lines": [ 9.053733, 9.135145, 9.075381, 8.910671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.866, "volume": 104277, "typical_volume": 89835.85, "trend": 8.7152, "fair_value": 7.344122, "relative_strength": -6.621758, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.284422, "energy": 21.504521, "activity_lines": [ 8.974267, 9.076164, 9.072557, 8.922499 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.398, "volume": 36769, "typical_volume": 89688.9, "trend": 8.757067, "fair_value": 7.365687, "relative_strength": -3.772388, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.760923, "energy": 27.504765, "activity_lines": [ 9.093933, 9.121764, 9.11739, 8.966551 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }