{ "ticker": { "uuid": "307ed94b-fe5d-4f36-af40-7a0253bed4c5", "symbol": "ALV", "name": "Alvo Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.4, "architecture_energy": 79.905, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.848, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.83, "rotation_up": 10.02, "upward_expansion": 18.22, "deceleration": 37.32, "rotation_down": 77.6, "downward_expansion": 93.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.019333, 0.022273, 0.027267, 0.029185 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.018, "trend_reference": 0.033667, "distance_from_trend": -0.465347, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.084057, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.785859, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.203924, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.571429, "excess_performance": -0.635134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.465347, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254062, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.785859, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190957, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.542039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.645696, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.571429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.254185, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 788292, "relative_activity": 0.257758, "balance": 0.254185, "dry_up": 1.109761, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.33547, "annualized_volatility": 1.17921, "from_high_reference": -0.810526, "from_low_reference": 0.058824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.033667, "fair_value_reference": 0.084057, "structural_low": 0.017, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.040504, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 1.464286, "worst_return": -0.54902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.189412, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.196561, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.520833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.356612, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 2.333333, "worst_return": -0.627273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.172117, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.42, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.178571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106383, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.247059, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"close": 0.027, "volume": 759695, "typical_volume": 3116654.55, "trend": 0.041567, "fair_value": 0.090647, "relative_strength": -28.876001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.557241, "energy": 58.159771, "activity_lines": [ 0.0268, 0.030327, 0.031586, 0.034161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.023, "volume": 2726133, "typical_volume": 3037780.05, "trend": 0.039333, "fair_value": 0.088775, "relative_strength": -39.159683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.789022, "energy": 61.35303, "activity_lines": [ 0.0254, 0.028436, 0.030762, 0.032963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.017, "volume": 7507473, "typical_volume": 3208392.7, "trend": 0.037567, "fair_value": 0.087153, "relative_strength": -54.667146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.750086, "energy": 64.533841, "activity_lines": [ 0.022333, 0.0258, 0.029429, 0.031523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.019, "volume": 2553864, "typical_volume": 3122610.4, "trend": 0.035667, "fair_value": 0.085672, "relative_strength": -50.367812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.381254, "energy": 74.759341, "activity_lines": [ 0.0208, 0.023945, 0.028357, 0.030325 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.018, "volume": 788292, "typical_volume": 3058263.8, "trend": 0.033667, "fair_value": 0.084057, "relative_strength": -54.203924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.399536, "energy": 79.904985, "activity_lines": [ 0.019333, 0.022273, 0.027267, 0.029185 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }