{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3080737c-6565-4d09-8efb-78d79264d590", "symbol": "600416", "name": "Xiangtan Electric Manufacturing Co. Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.638, "architecture_energy": 60.83, "architecture_maturity": 63.419, "architecture_confidence": 88.208, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 18.52, "upward_expansion": 10.47, "deceleration": 53.99, "rotation_down": 64.26, "downward_expansion": 83.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.918, 9.265455, 10.246857, 11.065591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.05, "trend_reference": 12.289333, "distance_from_trend": -0.263589, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.747436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.290053, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.306961, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.367133, "excess_performance": -0.323929, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.263589, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113665, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.290053, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.261729, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.32307, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178667, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.367133, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.738533, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76423358, "relative_activity": 0.74126, "balance": 0.738533, "dry_up": 0.93393, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123587, "annualized_volatility": 0.423088, "from_high_reference": -0.488412, "from_low_reference": 0.113161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.289333, "fair_value_reference": 12.747436, "structural_low": 8.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.004715, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014655, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.244562, "worst_return": -0.141254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.034854, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.008074, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.770958, "worst_return": -0.186281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.00266, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.037409, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.629491, "worst_return": -0.246933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 112098254.55, "trend": 13.05, "fair_value": 12.9925, "relative_strength": -33.882942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.217592, "energy": 71.42072, "activity_lines": [ 9.879333, 10.452727, 11.32681, 12.089957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.42, "volume": 122318685, "typical_volume": 108939410.55, "trend": 12.851, "fair_value": 12.924103, "relative_strength": -35.773854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.862337, "energy": 85.049838, "activity_lines": [ 9.345333, 9.972727, 10.976762, 11.791247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.6, "volume": 108151386, "typical_volume": 106523531.1, "trend": 12.683, "fair_value": 12.859038, "relative_strength": -34.718904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.019166, "energy": 80.754889, "activity_lines": [ 8.960667, 9.608545, 10.674667, 11.516989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.15, "volume": 78256240, "typical_volume": 103989854.2, "trend": 12.513667, "fair_value": 12.801603, "relative_strength": -30.278323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.722703, "energy": 64.770313, "activity_lines": [ 8.928, 9.411273, 10.45381, 11.289054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.05, "volume": 76423358, "typical_volume": 103099216.9, "trend": 12.289333, "fair_value": 12.747436, "relative_strength": -32.306961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.637863, "energy": 60.830048, "activity_lines": [ 8.918, 9.265455, 10.246857, 11.065591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }