{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30877f38-04a8-4ade-a101-11661dcfd8fb", "symbol": "PWS", "name": "PACER WEALTHSHIELD ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.845, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.951, "architecture_energy": 22.07, "architecture_maturity": 23.42, "architecture_confidence": 41.862, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.45, "rotation_up": 41.77, "upward_expansion": 41.44, "deceleration": 49.6, "rotation_down": 31.2, "downward_expansion": 15.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.550547, 32.519453, 32.27279, 32.22323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.928, "trend_reference": 32.310392, "distance_from_trend": 0.019115, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.798114, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.105036, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.935562, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.005186, "excess_performance": -0.130811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019115, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001032, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.105036, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022943, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089356, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019126, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005186, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.468365, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3397, "relative_activity": 0.116748, "balance": 0.468365, "dry_up": 0.1359, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01846, "annualized_volatility": 0.100446, "from_high_reference": -0.019745, "from_low_reference": 0.081444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.310392, "fair_value_reference": 29.798114, "structural_low": 31.113425, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008961, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.006461, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.056716, "worst_return": -0.055781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.000416, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075129, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.019924, "worst_return": -0.067059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.01104, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.078813, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065337, "worst_return": -0.055377, "sufficient": false 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32.331401, "fair_value": 29.718226, "relative_strength": -6.48721, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.481976, "energy": 37.314348, "activity_lines": [ 32.598453, 32.416539, 32.176024, 32.197172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.1284, "volume": 2869, "typical_volume": 37781.45, "trend": 32.321097, "fair_value": 29.754762, "relative_strength": -8.262902, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.408748, "energy": 15.521425, "activity_lines": [ 32.41116, 32.39749, 32.187144, 32.184075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.928, "volume": 3397, "typical_volume": 29096.85, "trend": 32.310392, "fair_value": 29.798114, "relative_strength": -8.935562, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.950778, "energy": 22.069867, "activity_lines": [ 32.550547, 32.519453, 32.27279, 32.22323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }