{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30894a3f-d52c-42e3-aa3b-9f096c118145", "symbol": "600053", "name": "Kunwu Jiuding Investment Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.589, "architecture_energy": 74.105, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.093, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.38, "rotation_up": 29.8, "upward_expansion": 15.48, "deceleration": 43.78, "rotation_down": 53.29, "downward_expansion": 86.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.241333, 7.536, 8.567524, 10.384344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.36, "trend_reference": 13.318, "distance_from_trend": -0.447364, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.784487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.502181, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.154221, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.669807, "excess_performance": -0.626603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.447364, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227434, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.502181, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11649, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.521542, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.669807, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.770602, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7682827, "relative_activity": 0.433539, "balance": 1.770602, "dry_up": 0.527331, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106814, "annualized_volatility": 0.54848, "from_high_reference": -0.719619, "from_low_reference": 0.144635 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.318, "fair_value_reference": 14.784487, "structural_low": 6.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.034571, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.01802, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.464615, "worst_return": -0.366841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.042101, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.055624, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.392688, "worst_return": -0.524804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.147374, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.082496, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.431454, "worst_return": -0.040122, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045486, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056849, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097081, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089147, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105109, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", 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19599049.4, "trend": 14.604, "fair_value": 14.901538, "relative_strength": -52.328409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.459742, "energy": 70.963424, "activity_lines": [ 7.876, 8.137455, 9.666286, 11.75372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.58, "volume": 12366831, "typical_volume": 18905197.15, "trend": 14.186333, "fair_value": 14.860385, "relative_strength": -56.935653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.203021, "energy": 72.863751, "activity_lines": [ 7.419333, 7.79, 9.200905, 11.236043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.36, "volume": 7671522, "typical_volume": 18277441.4, "trend": 13.735, "fair_value": 14.821795, "relative_strength": -51.45746, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.839598, "energy": 67.405542, "activity_lines": [ 7.310667, 7.641091, 8.862333, 10.795634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.36, "volume": 7682827, "typical_volume": 17721201.0, "trend": 13.318, "fair_value": 14.784487, "relative_strength": -52.154221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.58947, "energy": 74.104648, "activity_lines": [ 7.241333, 7.536, 8.567524, 10.384344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }