{ "ticker": { "uuid": "308b9c48-49e6-422e-ad6a-7a38f75847c0", "symbol": "KTOS", "name": "Kratos Defense & Security Solutions", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.263, "architecture_energy": 35.714, "architecture_maturity": 85.22, "architecture_confidence": 67.238, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.56, "rotation_up": 28.28, "upward_expansion": 18.37, "deceleration": 63.91, "rotation_down": 44.48, "downward_expansion": 68.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.503333, 51.263455, 54.23, 60.092645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 60.77, "trend_reference": 70.838667, "distance_from_trend": -0.142135, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.871442, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.451347, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.629546, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.356318, "excess_performance": -0.543772, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142135, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113516, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.451347, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047962, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.296295, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038564, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.356318, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.623762, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28932555, "relative_activity": 1.325258, "balance": 0.623762, "dry_up": 0.938704, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143251, "annualized_volatility": 0.719012, "from_high_reference": -0.546493, "from_low_reference": 0.410304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.838667, "fair_value_reference": 41.871442, "structural_low": 43.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.033992, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.044718, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.213592, "worst_return": -0.154135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.117591, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.045868, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.227754, "worst_return": -0.36, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.159063, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.101591, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.308887, "worst_return": -0.250797, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 41.394583, "relative_strength": -42.638347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.971611, "energy": 58.020535, "activity_lines": [ 48.223333, 51.019091, 55.437381, 62.603978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.6, "volume": 14812035, "typical_volume": 21277364.25, "trend": 72.603, "fair_value": 41.586891, "relative_strength": -43.54018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.987552, "energy": 57.326004, "activity_lines": [ 47.481333, 49.766, 54.061476, 60.856065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.77, "volume": 28932555, "typical_volume": 21831644.85, "trend": 70.838667, "fair_value": 41.871442, "relative_strength": -29.629546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.262778, "energy": 35.713729, "activity_lines": [ 51.503333, 51.263455, 54.23, 60.092645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }