{ "ticker": { "uuid": "308dd32a-33f4-4619-bad2-6e9543db8bca", "symbol": "RI", "name": "Pernod Ricard SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 53.524, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 17.18, "architecture_energy": 27.52, "architecture_maturity": 89.717, "architecture_confidence": 43.925, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.12, "rotation_up": 46.8, "upward_expansion": 34.42, "deceleration": 46.47, "rotation_down": 19.51, "downward_expansion": 47.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.554771, 64.757702, 64.118214, 65.361712 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 70.360001, "trend_reference": 68.137104, "distance_from_trend": 0.032624, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 103.808155, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.322211, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.153553, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.124876, "excess_performance": -0.299122, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032624, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058599, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.322211, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115774, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241536, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094597, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124876, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.182788, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044359, "annualized_volatility": 0.31017, "from_high_reference": -0.321286, "from_low_reference": 0.170971 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.137104, "fair_value_reference": 103.808155, "structural_low": 60.086864, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.002057, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025156, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.140956, "worst_return": -0.113712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.075469, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.08962, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.110581, "worst_return": -0.172735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.128606, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.203311, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.233308, "worst_return": -0.238215, "sufficient": true }, { 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0, "typical_volume": 63.25, "trend": 68.487771, "fair_value": 105.203709, "relative_strength": -31.886081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.829064, "energy": 37.664015, "activity_lines": [ 62.53028, 62.601088, 63.141005, 65.289381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.559998, "volume": 48, "typical_volume": 65.65, "trend": 68.311104, "fair_value": 104.507712, "relative_strength": -25.906302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.124213, "energy": 11.786576, "activity_lines": [ 64.21187, 63.447395, 63.493609, 65.229525 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.360001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 65.65, "trend": 68.137104, "fair_value": 103.808155, "relative_strength": -24.153553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 17.179951, "energy": 27.520043, "activity_lines": [ 66.554771, 64.757702, 64.118214, 65.361712 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }