{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3093fe6d-8b04-4f88-8bb2-32731afb1ab2", "symbol": "SPAG", "name": "iShares Agribusiness UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.719, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.83, "architecture_energy": 24.256, "architecture_maturity": 21.8, "architecture_confidence": 79.468, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.0, "rotation_up": 29.88, "upward_expansion": 20.48, "deceleration": 42.34, "rotation_down": 34.12, "downward_expansion": 59.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 4172.0, 4160.872727, 4193.604762, 4226.535484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4104.0, "trend_reference": 4236.7, "distance_from_trend": -0.031322, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3696.794872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.110151, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.863903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015355, "excess_performance": -0.06659, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031322, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032922, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.110151, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058947, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058639, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097626, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015355, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.907077, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75199, "relative_activity": 0.799979, "balance": 0.907077, "dry_up": 2.280867, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027715, "annualized_volatility": 0.162289, "from_high_reference": -0.09404, "from_low_reference": 0.160388 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4236.7, "fair_value_reference": 3696.794872, "structural_low": 4000.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.001849, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009292, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.071293, "worst_return": -0.067564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.019084, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.027502, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.062515, "worst_return": -0.130119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.034478, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051388, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102774, "worst_return": -0.097032, 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063663, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06468, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01698, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031966, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009044, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.078461, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033201, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047248, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011799, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3698.0, "volume": 15806, "typical_volume": 24500.95, "trend": 3887.466667, "fair_value": 3680.144231, "relative_strength": -6.098942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"volume": 72897, "typical_volume": 77860.85, "trend": 4213.633333, "fair_value": 3693.576923, "relative_strength": -0.098256, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.085706, "energy": 8.381485, "activity_lines": [ 4203.933333, 4176.381818, 4218.209524, 4238.410753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4153.0, "volume": 378007, "typical_volume": 92908.1, "trend": 4227.433333, "fair_value": 3695.153846, "relative_strength": -4.577678, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.577259, "energy": 12.106205, "activity_lines": [ 4196.733333, 4172.327273, 4207.490476, 4234.498925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4104.0, "volume": 75199, "typical_volume": 94001.2, "trend": 4236.7, "fair_value": 3696.794872, "relative_strength": -5.863903, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.829876, "energy": 24.255774, "activity_lines": [ 4172.0, 4160.872727, 4193.604762, 4226.535484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }