{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3095f46a-db66-47c8-97d4-78c517742cbc", "symbol": "002427", "name": "Zhejiang Unifull Industrial Fibre Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.885, "architecture_energy": 60.009, "architecture_maturity": 57.635, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 23.98, "upward_expansion": 10.76, "deceleration": 50.02, "rotation_down": 55.17, "downward_expansion": 81.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.174667, 4.313818, 4.676952, 5.163742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.33, "trend_reference": 5.823667, "distance_from_trend": -0.256482, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.309487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.184479, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.106117, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.406036, "excess_performance": -0.413435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.256482, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111659, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.184479, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237528, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.341061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011864, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.406036, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.356754, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50547598, "relative_activity": 0.637169, "balance": 0.356754, "dry_up": 0.825755, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115829, "annualized_volatility": 0.511453, "from_high_reference": -0.481437, "from_low_reference": 0.139474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.823667, "fair_value_reference": 5.309487, "structural_low": 3.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.006401, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.017098, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.271287, "worst_return": -0.202869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.044506, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041944, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.301075, "worst_return": -0.274611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055233, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.066909, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.718504, "worst_return": -0.3157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.231325, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.340557, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.476357, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156934, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.228217, "energy": 62.310989, "activity_lines": [ 4.603333, 4.662909, 5.185238, 5.65357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.08, "volume": 86724379, "typical_volume": 100214036.55, "trend": 6.067, "fair_value": 5.381603, "relative_strength": -38.320434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.1097, "energy": 62.273468, "activity_lines": [ 4.440667, 4.525091, 5.029476, 5.521054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.89, "volume": 65316699, "typical_volume": 97949257.05, "trend": 5.988333, "fair_value": 5.356795, "relative_strength": -40.365677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.246885, "energy": 66.941297, "activity_lines": [ 4.238, 4.385455, 4.87281, 5.380602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.2, "volume": 59444983, "typical_volume": 93738117.75, "trend": 5.903, "fair_value": 5.331795, "relative_strength": -33.665909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.656968, "energy": 67.769287, "activity_lines": [ 4.162, 4.330727, 4.762048, 5.265226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.33, "volume": 50547598, "typical_volume": 79331567.65, "trend": 5.823667, "fair_value": 5.309487, "relative_strength": -34.106117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.885452, "energy": 60.008607, "activity_lines": [ 4.174667, 4.313818, 4.676952, 5.163742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }