{ "ticker": { "uuid": "309dc201-0c7c-49c8-acbf-07c0400038fb", "symbol": "3390", "name": "Sunflex Tech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.251, "architecture_energy": 55.084, "architecture_maturity": 12.261, "architecture_confidence": 82.445, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.03, "rotation_up": 14.47, "upward_expansion": 26.34, "deceleration": 49.6, "rotation_down": 70.27, "downward_expansion": 56.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.526768, 23.999849, 25.307988, 25.064087 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.1, "trend_reference": 24.644887, "distance_from_trend": -0.103262, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.176766, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.085899, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.972806, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001987, "excess_performance": -0.439385, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103262, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040157, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.085899, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22604, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.309728, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143345, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001987, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.419181, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 848748, "relative_activity": 0.132218, "balance": 0.419181, "dry_up": 0.175567, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126306, "annualized_volatility": 0.488928, "from_high_reference": -0.301122, "from_low_reference": 0.189025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.644887, "fair_value_reference": 24.176766, "structural_low": 20.370973, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.034575, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.031227, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.282051, "worst_return": -0.062925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0704, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037849, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.219373, "worst_return": -0.117347, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.019718, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.0791, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150997, "worst_return": -0.232993, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062925, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.030686, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048964, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.151013, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006961, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": 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39.559682, "energy": 22.561403, "activity_lines": [ 27.392599, 27.501941, 26.532066, 25.684279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.890047, "volume": 2912747, "typical_volume": 6672166.1, "trend": 24.787163, "fair_value": 24.00341, "relative_strength": -22.782255, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.590766, "energy": 13.266816, "activity_lines": [ 26.127054, 26.850394, 26.383845, 25.630131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.741354, "volume": 1033062, "typical_volume": 6562115.95, "trend": 24.861509, "fair_value": 24.05333, "relative_strength": -24.372651, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.410333, "energy": 12.275057, "activity_lines": [ 25.125853, 26.225883, 26.227127, 25.562659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.006599, "volume": 1563427, "typical_volume": 6512181.75, "trend": 24.775598, "fair_value": 24.093019, "relative_strength": -28.352506, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.744109, "energy": 32.341308, "activity_lines": [ 23.847091, 25.338229, 25.905194, 25.378472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.502243, "volume": 1062845, "typical_volume": 6426477.2, "trend": 24.699599, "fair_value": 24.136182, "relative_strength": -27.894182, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.078498, "energy": 47.976478, "activity_lines": [ 23.073886, 24.656943, 25.627398, 25.231804 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 22.1, "volume": 848748, "typical_volume": 6419317.5, "trend": 24.644887, "fair_value": 24.176766, "relative_strength": -30.972806, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.250916, "energy": 55.084029, "activity_lines": [ 22.526768, 23.999849, 25.307988, 25.064087 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }