{ "ticker": { "uuid": "309f9cdf-f27a-4fd1-9904-31af3cd3d881", "symbol": "SII", "name": "Sprott Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.702, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.043, "architecture_energy": 52.425, "architecture_maturity": 13.017, "architecture_confidence": 89.355, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.78, "rotation_up": 19.65, "upward_expansion": 9.41, "deceleration": 44.35, "rotation_down": 59.81, "downward_expansion": 85.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.413333, 110.109273, 117.350292, 123.002034 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 117.88, "trend_reference": 127.820271, "distance_from_trend": -0.077768, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.093867, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.839178, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.200958, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002735, "excess_performance": -0.12836, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077768, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052647, "read": "Rising" 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101.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.002469, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009609, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.219913, "worst_return": -0.112105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000454, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.020711, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.110577, "worst_return": -0.122429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.021543, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.071922, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.364959, "worst_return": -0.081657, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.610786, "energy": 52.583784, "activity_lines": [ 113.298667, 118.010797, 125.577341, 128.227671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 104.14, "volume": 745728, "typical_volume": 968687.65, "trend": 127.214824, "fair_value": 62.614381, "relative_strength": -9.854638, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.747142, "energy": 69.831468, "activity_lines": [ 109.602, 114.693403, 122.859834, 126.756118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 102.84, "volume": 645051, "typical_volume": 942628.5, "trend": 127.312607, "fair_value": 63.080649, "relative_strength": -10.768424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.191993, "energy": 72.86041, "activity_lines": [ 106.449333, 111.798182, 120.290141, 125.183548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 103.01, "volume": 598432, "typical_volume": 911117.6, "trend": 127.390865, "fair_value": 63.546212, "relative_strength": -11.928899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.098686, "energy": 71.698618, "activity_lines": [ 104.648667, 109.402727, 118.006913, 123.615638 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 117.88, "volume": 1470597, "typical_volume": 914404.9, "trend": 127.820271, "fair_value": 64.093867, "relative_strength": -3.200958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.043136, "energy": 52.424989, "activity_lines": [ 108.413333, 110.109273, 117.350292, 123.002034 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }