{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30a4f216-1c51-488d-9f97-287f53d73639", "symbol": "ABFRL", "name": "Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.043, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.727, "architecture_energy": 21.346, "architecture_maturity": 9.234, "architecture_confidence": 75.54, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.6, "rotation_up": 19.73, "upward_expansion": 10.49, "deceleration": 54.7, "rotation_down": 43.99, "downward_expansion": 67.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.141334, 60.095637, 61.125, 61.644581 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 63.330002, "trend_reference": 62.914667, "distance_from_trend": 0.006602, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 186.024744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.659561, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.224504, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.079773, "excess_performance": -0.036064, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006602, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084167, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.659561, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005846, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030888, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.079773, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.840192, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38983205, "relative_activity": 1.84103, "balance": 0.840192, "dry_up": 1.184084, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061825, "annualized_volatility": 0.339036, "from_high_reference": -0.333017, "from_low_reference": 0.183517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.914667, "fair_value_reference": 186.024744, "structural_low": 53.509998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.00266, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00962, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.1784, "worst_return": -0.196748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.095642, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.078893, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.136546, "worst_return": -0.708511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.170397, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.135708, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.17048, "worst_return": -0.735106, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.25, "volume": 12015168, "typical_volume": 21114466.25, "trend": 63.885334, "fair_value": 187.931924, "relative_strength": -17.208891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.831433, "energy": 52.150542, "activity_lines": [ 58.518, 59.653818, 61.004762, 61.87643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.25, "volume": 34925332, "typical_volume": 21723681.95, "trend": 63.288334, "fair_value": 186.97327, "relative_strength": -13.25159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.71242, "energy": 45.549147, "activity_lines": [ 58.820666, 59.530182, 60.920524, 61.641892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.330002, "volume": 38983205, "typical_volume": 21174672.1, "trend": 62.914667, "fair_value": 186.024744, "relative_strength": -9.224504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.726556, "energy": 21.345702, "activity_lines": [ 60.141334, 60.095637, 61.125, 61.644581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }