{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30a75798-a15a-4875-a749-0a2d08f830b0", "symbol": "CPR", "name": "CPR Gomu Industrial Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.343, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.022, "architecture_energy": 24.894, "architecture_maturity": 65.444, "architecture_confidence": 83.001, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.37, "rotation_up": 24.4, "upward_expansion": 9.16, "deceleration": 49.1, "rotation_down": 41.08, "downward_expansion": 68.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.598667, 2.603273, 2.623714, 2.645238 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.58, "trend_reference": 2.679199, "distance_from_trend": -0.037026, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.981759, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.134739, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.206323, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060109, "excess_performance": -0.252434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037026, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02756, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.134739, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021074, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222063, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004426, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060109, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.597957, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 160000, "relative_activity": 0.500657, "balance": 2.597957, "dry_up": 0.45505, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042338, "annualized_volatility": 0.179966, "from_high_reference": -0.323084, "from_low_reference": 0.02381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.679199, "fair_value_reference": 2.981759, "structural_low": 2.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.002295, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008219, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.385281, "worst_return": -0.105263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.014466, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.385246, "worst_return": -0.208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019073, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.054012, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.550836, "worst_return": -0.230476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 378075.0, "trend": 2.694566, "fair_value": 3.010017, "relative_strength": -23.39306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.597608, "energy": 42.820875, "activity_lines": [ 2.596, 2.618182, 2.639777, 2.666343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.68, "volume": 260500, "typical_volume": 322225.0, "trend": 2.695032, "fair_value": 3.003326, "relative_strength": -22.031597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.012843, "energy": 22.175137, "activity_lines": [ 2.624, 2.626909, 2.641356, 2.665404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.62, "volume": 88200, "typical_volume": 316600.0, "trend": 2.692182, "fair_value": 2.996251, "relative_strength": -23.620988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.588258, "energy": 16.04352, "activity_lines": [ 2.628, 2.623273, 2.638, 2.660563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.56, "volume": 73000, "typical_volume": 313620.0, "trend": 2.685357, "fair_value": 2.98919, "relative_strength": -24.098676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.19745, "energy": 21.528921, "activity_lines": [ 2.610667, 2.610545, 2.629619, 2.652035 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.58, "volume": 160000, "typical_volume": 319580.0, "trend": 2.679199, "fair_value": 2.981759, "relative_strength": -22.206323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.022137, "energy": 24.894377, "activity_lines": [ 2.598667, 2.603273, 2.623714, 2.645238 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }