{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30af578f-7724-4054-8bb3-0cb39662c372", "symbol": "300126", "name": "Ken Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.932, "architecture_energy": 55.231, "architecture_maturity": 83.976, "architecture_confidence": 94.327, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 25.26, "upward_expansion": 9.33, "deceleration": 60.41, "rotation_down": 54.64, "downward_expansion": 82.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.758, 5.831818, 6.394476, 6.873204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.13, "trend_reference": 7.514667, "distance_from_trend": -0.184262, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.659082, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.079453, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.937762, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.310461, "excess_performance": -0.317861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184262, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119341, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.079453, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.313626, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269378, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078923, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.310461, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.295904, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26970056, "relative_activity": 1.287561, "balance": 0.295904, "dry_up": 1.271901, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106412, "annualized_volatility": 0.362879, "from_high_reference": -0.47382, "from_low_reference": 0.258727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.514667, "fair_value_reference": 6.659082, "structural_low": 4.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.001191, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007471, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.264151, "worst_return": -0.210896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.089235, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.031212, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.378824, "worst_return": -0.177989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055903, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.047956, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.621176, "worst_return": -0.205382, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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5.956667, 6.362182, 6.97119, 7.404645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.58, "volume": 28346174, "typical_volume": 20692653.9, "trend": 7.790333, "fair_value": 6.673212, "relative_strength": -32.419788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.939653, "energy": 85.322495, "activity_lines": [ 5.799333, 6.142364, 6.792619, 7.255634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.25, "volume": 28483844, "typical_volume": 20660999.0, "trend": 7.681667, "fair_value": 6.665234, "relative_strength": -36.114551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.23587, "energy": 74.91556, "activity_lines": [ 5.589333, 5.910182, 6.599381, 7.091742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.76, "volume": 22768050, "typical_volume": 20726801.3, "trend": 7.595667, "fair_value": 6.660589, "relative_strength": -28.297406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.255426, "energy": 62.958549, "activity_lines": [ 5.608667, 5.819636, 6.47219, 6.967763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.13, "volume": 26970056, "typical_volume": 20946622.75, "trend": 7.514667, "fair_value": 6.659082, "relative_strength": -26.937762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.932459, "energy": 55.230649, "activity_lines": [ 5.758, 5.831818, 6.394476, 6.873204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }