{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30b0fc28-2ab0-4837-80cc-0bf293904f16", "symbol": "CAT-A", "name": "Catella AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.9, "architecture_energy": 38.936, "architecture_maturity": 66.645, "architecture_confidence": 94.962, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.91, "rotation_up": 21.01, "upward_expansion": 4.23, "deceleration": 55.03, "rotation_down": 52.93, "downward_expansion": 77.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.113334, 19.250909, 19.631403, 20.073886 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.200001, "trend_reference": 21.151532, "distance_from_trend": -0.092264, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.823925, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.256503, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.276911, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.258842, "excess_performance": -0.320336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092264, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086935, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.256503, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037682, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004433, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.258842, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.141873, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14898, "relative_activity": 8.545126, "balance": 0.141873, "dry_up": 2.427945, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064503, "annualized_volatility": 0.448266, "from_high_reference": -0.407951, "from_low_reference": 0.066667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.151532, "fair_value_reference": 25.823925, "structural_low": 18.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.003546, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013547, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.165595, "worst_return": -0.225352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.049298, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.042692, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.231405, "worst_return": -0.159722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.024242, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.076956, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.089023, "worst_return": -0.222258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 162, "typical_volume": 1333.7, "trend": 21.623064, "fair_value": 25.903333, "relative_strength": -31.480908, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.372248, "energy": 69.18275, "activity_lines": [ 18.72, 19.232727, 19.7078, 20.320163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.0, "volume": 714, "typical_volume": 1277.9, "trend": 21.394235, "fair_value": 25.867934, "relative_strength": -25.787638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.506574, "energy": 48.788987, "activity_lines": [ 19.066667, 19.310909, 19.703231, 20.215449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.200001, "volume": 14898, "typical_volume": 1743.45, "trend": 21.151532, "fair_value": 25.823925, "relative_strength": -29.276911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.89994, "energy": 38.935737, "activity_lines": [ 19.113334, 19.250909, 19.631403, 20.073886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }