{ "ticker": { "uuid": "30b5f2f8-510b-45b6-ada2-d24a690a1692", "symbol": "002446", "name": "Guangdong Shenglu Telecommunication Tech. Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.635, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.307, "architecture_energy": 73.395, "architecture_maturity": 13.129, "architecture_confidence": 79.726, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.55, "rotation_up": 10.96, "upward_expansion": 18.76, "deceleration": 34.26, "rotation_down": 71.52, "downward_expansion": 87.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.267333, 9.059273, 9.631524, 9.892065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.2, "trend_reference": 10.385, "distance_from_trend": -0.114107, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.895705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16519, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.391403, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.235245, "excess_performance": -0.242645, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114107, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016874, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16519, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208658, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073914, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064705, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.235245, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.823915, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 229441078, "relative_activity": 1.345606, "balance": 0.823915, "dry_up": 1.098283, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143896, "annualized_volatility": 0.656507, "from_high_reference": -0.37287, "from_low_reference": 0.360947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.385, "fair_value_reference": 7.895705, "structural_low": 6.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.007519, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.014571, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.294455, "worst_return": -0.15097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.162379, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.046633, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.299625, "worst_return": -0.219298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.106742, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.005032, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.302251, "worst_return": -0.226087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 7.925769, "relative_strength": -0.21828, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.34957, "energy": 16.924269, "activity_lines": [ 10.752667, 10.657091, 10.468143, 10.564796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.8, "volume": 231511559, "typical_volume": 178478444.55, "trend": 10.61, "fair_value": 7.915192, "relative_strength": -18.563673, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.155024, "energy": 44.061685, "activity_lines": [ 9.755333, 10.149273, 10.221048, 10.38114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.23, "volume": 160284401, "typical_volume": 171442512.4, "trend": 10.522667, "fair_value": 7.902564, "relative_strength": -24.600837, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.532069, "energy": 75.645727, "activity_lines": [ 8.748, 9.591818, 9.936238, 10.163075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.55, "volume": 127841557, "typical_volume": 165941129.8, "trend": 10.428, "fair_value": 7.891923, "relative_strength": -19.944382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.128671, "energy": 81.278604, "activity_lines": [ 8.146667, 9.149455, 9.698238, 9.97129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.2, "volume": 229441078, "typical_volume": 170511276.65, "trend": 10.385, "fair_value": 7.895705, "relative_strength": -7.391403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.307303, "energy": 73.39537, "activity_lines": [ 8.267333, 9.059273, 9.631524, 9.892065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }